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95S.Cempaka 中心近岸徘迴 南半球新風季首命名氣旋

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2017-11-20 09:55 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-27 15:09 編輯

  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號:95 S
名稱:Cempaka
800px-Cempaka_2017-11-27_0550Z.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 11 20 08
升格熱低日期:2017 11 26 08
命名日期  :2017 11 27 20
撤編日期  :2017 11 30 09
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
印尼雅加達氣象局 (BMKG):35 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):30 kts ( - )
海平面最低氣壓:998 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
1920px-Cempaka_2017_track.png
  擾動編號資料  
95S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8.6S.109.6E

20171120.0120.himawari-8.ir.95S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8.6S.109.6E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:BMKG、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
t02436 + 15

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霧峰追風者|2017-11-30 06:07 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-11-30 06:48 編輯

JTWC 21Z取消評級,將併入96S環流內。
  (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11S 110.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

abiosair (2).jpg 20171129.2120.himawari-8.ir.95S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.11.4S.110.1E.100pc.jpg rgb-animated.gif

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霧峰追風者|2017-11-29 15:39 | 顯示全部樓層
BMKG 已經降格熱帶低壓。
IDJ21020
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

            BULETIN TEKNIS SIKLON TROPIS
            
Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 06:13 UTC 29/11/2017
Digunakan hanya sebagai pertimbangan pembuatan prakiraan cuaca, tidak untuk disebarluaskan secara langsung kepada masyarakat.

System: 1
Storm ID: 95S

SIKLON TROPIS: CEMPAKA
Data pada: 29/0600 UTC
Lintang: 9,9LS
Bujur: 110,0BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar 30 mil (55 km)
Arah gerak: barat barat daya (255 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 15 knots (28 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Cilacap
   Pada  +0: 135 mil (250 km) selatan barat daya
   Pada +12: 135 mil (250 km) selatan tenggara
   Pada +24: 185 mil (340 km) selatan
Arah 2: Dari Semarang
   Pada  +0: 175 mil (330 km) selatan

Angin Maksimum 10-Menit: 25 knots (45 km/jam)
Gust Maksimum 3-detik: 45 knots (85 km/jam)
Tekanan dipusat siklon: 1003 hPa
Intensitas: Depression
24 jam Intensitas: Depression

DATA PRAKIRAAN
Tgl./Jam    : Posisi          :   Akurasi: Kec.Angin Max:Tekanan dipusat: Gust
(UTC)       : derajat         :  mil (km): knots(km/jam):            hPa: knots(km/jam):
+ 6: 29/1200:   9,4LS  111,3BT: 045 (085):    025  (045):           1004:    045  (085)
+12: 29/1800:   9,8LS  111,3BT: 060 (110):    020  (035):           1005:    045  (085)
+18: 30/0000:  10,3LS  111,2BT: 075 (140):    020  (035):           1005:    045  (085)
+24: 30/0600:  10,7LS  111,1BT: 090 (165):    020  (035):           1005:    045  (085)

Daerah Siaga Cuaca Buruk: Badung, Bangli, Buleleng, Gianyar, Jembrana, Karang Asem, Klungkung, Kodya Bali, Tabanan, Bantul, Gunung Kidul, Kodya Yogyakarta, Kulon Progo, Sleman, Banjarnegara, Banyumas, Batang, Blora, Boyolali, Brebes, Cilacap, Demak, Grobogan, Jepara, Karanganyar, Kebumen, Kendal, Klaten, Kodya Magelang, Kodya Pekalongan, Kodya Salatiga, Kodya Semarang, Kodya Surakarta, Kodya Tegal, Kudus, Magelang, Pati, Pekalongan, Pemalang, Purbalingga, Purworejo, Rembang, Semarang, Sragen, Sukoharjo, Tegal, Temanggung, Wonogiri, Wonosobo, Bangkalan, Banyuwangi, Blitar, Bojonegoro, Bondowoso, Gresik, Jember, Jombang, Kediri, Kodya Malang, Kodya Pasuruan, Kodya Surabaya, Lamongan, Lumajang, Madiun, Magetan, Malang, Mojokerto, Nganjuk, Ngawi, Pacitan, Pamekasan, Pasuruan, Ponorogo, Probolinggo, Sampang, Sidoarjo, Situbondo, Sumenep, Trenggalek, Tuban, Tulungagung, Lombok Barat, Lombok Tengah and Lombok Timur

KETERANGAN TEKNIS
Informasi lebih lanjut hubungi 021 6546318.

DAMPAK
Eks-Siklon tropis CEMPAKA memberikan dampak berupa :
- Hujan dengan intensitas sedang hingga lebat di Selatan Jawa Tengah ,Yogyakarta,  Jawa Timur, Bali, dan Lombok.
- Angin kencang hingga 20 knot berpotensi terjadi di wilayah selatan Jawa.
- Gelombang tinggi 1.25 - 2.5 meter di  Perairan Selatan Jawa Timur hingga Selatan NTB, Samudera Hindia Selatan Bali dan Selatan NTB.
- Gelombang tinggi 2.5 - 4 meter di Perairan Selatan Banten hingga Selatan Jawa Tengah, Samudera Hindia Selatan P.Jawa.

Tidak ada buletin lebih lanjut, kecuali sistem ini menguat kembali.
IDJ22001 (3).gif


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霧峰追風者|2017-11-29 14:51 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 02Z取消TCFA,降評至MEDIUM。
WTXS21 PGTW 290200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151Z NOV 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 280200)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280200). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 111.0E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 317NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
WEAKENED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. A 281941Z
AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AND LESS DISORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATESTHE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
INDICATE MINIMAL TO NO DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH POSSIBLE
REINTENSIFICATION IN A FEW DAYS AS THE LLCC TRACKS POLEWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN
abiosair (3).jpg


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霧峰追風者|2017-11-28 08:56 | 顯示全部樓層
稍早的底層,蠻接近陸地..
TXXS28 KNES 272235
TCSSIO
CCA

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95S)

B.  27/1730Z

C.  8.6S

D.  111.4E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND INTENSITY BASED ON 1811Z AMSR
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FIVE-TENTHS BANDING
FEATURE. THIS YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE AT 2.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...GAETANO
20171127.2031.f16.91h.95S.INVEST.30kts.1001mb.8.5S.111.3E.090pc.jpg 20171127.2031.f16.91pct91h91v.95S.INVEST.30kts.1001mb.8.5S.111.3E.090pc.jpg




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Meow|2017-11-27 21:04 | 顯示全部樓層
已升格熱帶氣旋並命名Cempaka。
IDJ22001.gif
EGC:2:1:24:09S111E900:11:00
THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

            OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 12:03 UTC 27 November 2017

SITUATION
At 12:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA 999 hPa was within 15 nautical miles of 8,6 S 110,8 E moving northeast at 5 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 20 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 15 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 15 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 35 knots expected to increase to 40 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

00:00 UTC 28 November:  Within 45 nautical miles of 8,7 S 108,0 E
                        Central pressure 996 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 40 knots near centre.
12:00 UTC 28 November: Within 75 nautical miles of 8,3 S 109,1 E
                        Central pressure 996 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 19:00 UTC 27 November 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
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霧峰追風者|2017-11-27 09:54 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-11-27 10:18 編輯

JTWC 02Z發佈TCFA,型態轉好。
WTXS21 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 109.7E TO 8.3S 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 109.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY
245NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261943Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A CURVED MASS OF CONVECTION SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 95S IS UNDER
A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 95S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND LIKELY TURN POLEWARD THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280200Z.//
NNNN



sh952018.20171127012334.gif 20171127.0110.himawari-8.ircolor.95S.INVEST.30kts.1000mb.8.9S.109.8E.100pc.jpg
BMKG 又看好有機會命名。
IDJ21020
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

            BULETIN TEKNIS SIKLON TROPIS
            
Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 00:58 UTC 27/11/2017
Digunakan hanya sebagai pertimbangan pembuatan prakiraan cuaca, tidak untuk disebarluaskan secara langsung kepada masyarakat.

System: 1
Storm ID: 95S

SIKLON TROPIS: 95S
Data pada: 27/0000 UTC
Lintang: 9,0LS
Bujur: 109,5BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar 30 mil (55 km)
Arah gerak: timur timur laut (071 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 3 knots (6 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Cilacap
   Pada  +0: 95 mil (180 km) barat daya
   Pada +12: 100 mil (185 km) selatan
   Pada +24: 110 mil (200 km) selatan tenggara
Arah 2: Dari Semarang
   Pada  +0: 130 mil (245 km) selatan barat daya

Angin Maksimum 10-Menit: 20 knots (35 km/jam)
Gust Maksimum 3-detik: 45 knots (85 km/jam)
Tekanan dipusat siklon: 1005 hPa
Intensitas: Depression
24 jam Intensitas: Depression

DATA PRAKIRAAN
Tgl./Jam    : Posisi          :   Akurasi: Kec.Angin Max:Tekanan dipusat: Gust
(UTC)       : derajat         :  mil (km): knots(km/jam):            hPa: knots(km/jam):
+ 6: 27/0600:   9,3LS  110,1BT: 045 (085):    030  (055):           1003:    045  (085)
+12: 27/1200:   9,4LS  110,4BT: 060 (110):    030  (055):           1001:    045  (085)
+18: 27/1800:   9,4LS  110,7BT: 075 (140):    030  (055):           1001:    045  (085)
+24: 28/0000:   9,5LS  111,0BT: 090 (165):    030  (055):           1000:    045  (085)
+36: 28/1200:   9,4LS  111,8BT: 120 (225):    035  (065):            999:    050  (095)
+48: 29/0000:   9,6LS  112,0BT: 155 (285):    035  (065):            999:    050  (095)
+60: 29/1200:  10,0LS  112,0BT: 200 (375):    035  (065):            999:    050  (095)
+72: 30/0000:  10,2LS  112,7BT: 250 (465):    035  (065):            999:    050  (095)

Daerah Siaga Cuaca Buruk: Kodya Tangerang, Lebak, Pandeglang, Serang, Tangerang, Bantul, Gunung Kidul, Kodya Yogyakarta, Kulon Progo, Sleman, Jakarta Barat, Jakarta Pusat, Jakarta Selatan, Jakarta Timur, Jakarta Utara, Bandung, Bekasi, Bogor, Ciamis, Cianjur, Cirebon, Garut, Indramayu, Karawang, Kodya Bandung, Kodya Bogor, Kodya Sukabumi, Kuningan, Majalengka, Purwakarta, Subang, Sukabumi, Sumedang, Tasikmalaya, Banjarnegara, Banyumas, Batang, Blora, Boyolali, Brebes, Cilacap, Demak, Grobogan, Jepara, Karanganyar, Kebumen, Kendal, Klaten, Kodya Magelang, Kodya Pekalongan, Kodya Salatiga, Kodya Semarang, Kodya Surakarta, Kodya Tegal, Kudus, Magelang, Pati, Pekalongan, Pemalang, Purbalingga, Purworejo, Rembang, Semarang, Sragen, Sukoharjo, Tegal, Temanggung, Wonogiri and Wonosobo
Daerah Waspada Cuaca Buruk: Bangkalan, Banyuwangi, Blitar, Bojonegoro, Bondowoso, Gresik, Jember, Jombang, Kediri, Kodya Malang, Kodya Pasuruan, Kodya Surabaya, Lamongan, Lumajang, Madiun, Magetan, Malang, Mojokerto, Nganjuk, Ngawi, Pacitan, Pamekasan, Pasuruan, Ponorogo, Probolinggo, Sampang, Sidoarjo, Situbondo, Sumenep, Trenggalek, Tuban and Tulungagung
Peringatan Dini Angin Kencang: Jawa Barat bagian selatan, Jawa Tengah bagian selatan, dan Yogyakarta

KETERANGAN TEKNIS
Informasi lebih lanjut hubungi 021 6546318.

DAMPAK
Bibit siklon tropis 95S memberikan dampak berupa :
- Hujan dengan intensitas sedang hingga lebat di Banten, DKI Jakarta, Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, Yogyakarta, dan Jawa Timur.
- Angin kencang hingga 20 knot berpotensi terjadi di wilayah Banten hingga Yogyakarta
- Gelombang tinggi 1.25 - 2.5 meter di Selat Sunda bagian utara, perairan selatan Bali hingga P. Rote, Selat Bali, Selat Lombok, Selat Alas bagian selatan, dan Samudra Hindia selatan Bali hingga NTT
- Gelombang tinggi 2.5 - 4 meter di Laut Jawa, Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan selatan Banten hingga Jawa Timur, Samudra Hindia selatan Banten hingga Jawa Barat, dan Samudra Hindia selatan Jawa Tengah

Buletin berikutnya untuk sistem ini akan dikeluarkan pada: 27/0700 UTC oleh Jakarta TCWC.

IDJ22001 (2).gif

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霧峰追風者|2017-11-27 02:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級提升MEDIUM
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 109.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 235
NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT MASS OF CONVECTION OVER A COHESIVE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EVIDENT IN A 261414Z AMSU IMAGE. A 261319Z
SCATSAT-1 PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-
29 CELSIUS), AND WILL SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE SPLIT ON 95S, WITH SOME MODELS DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT AND
POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH INVEST 96S AS THE CENTER SWINGS TO THE
SOUTH, AND OTHER MODELS WEAKENING THE LLC AND TRACKING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER JAVA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abiosair (1).jpg 20171126.1810.himawari-8.ircolor.95S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.9.1S.109.4E.100pc.jpg


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