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03B.Ockhi 風切導致開眼不順 阿拉伯海近兩年再次有VSCS

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-11-29 02:33 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級提升MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 83.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 83.0E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
281317Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
BUT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS STEADILY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS
IT TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, BUT INCREASING LAND INTERACTION, OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BASED ON AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abiosair (2).jpg 20171128.1750.himawari-8.ircolor.91B.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.6N.83E.100pc.jpg


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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-11-28 10:45 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-11-28 16:08 編輯

JTWC 02Z評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
5.4N 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED AND
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 272131Z
89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED LLCC WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
SLOW TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg
20171128.0200.himawari-8.ircolor.91B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.4N.83.5E.100pc.jpg


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