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IMD：氣旋風暴帕布
A CYCLONIC STORM “PABUK” LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 3RD JANUARY 2019 NEAR LATTITUDE 6.00N LONITUDE 105.00E ABOUT 1500 KM EASTSOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND EMERGE INTO ANDAMAN SEA AROUND FORENOON OF 5TH JAUNARY 2019. THEREAFTER,IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ANDAMAN ISLANDS AROUND 6TH JANUARY EVENING /NIGHT AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY .THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER DURING 7-8 JANUARY 2019.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODALS SUGGEST THAT, AFTER THE EMERGENCE OF THE CYCLONIC STORM INTO ANADAMAN SEA, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INITIALLY NORTWESTWARDS ACROSS ANDAMAN ISLANDS ON 6TH JANUARY, THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST AND WEAEN GRADUALLY DURING 7-8TH JANUARY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF MALAY PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, IT WILL LIE IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS ON 7TH AND 8TH. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE 29-30 DEG. C OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND 27-28 DEG. C OVER THE ADJOINING BAY OF BENGAL. THUS AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS INTO ANDAMAN SEA IT WILL EXPERIENCE WARMER SEA AND HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (100-120 KJ PER CM2). HOWEVER, IT WILL BE GRADUALLY UNFAVOURABLE OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL LEADING TO WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SEA AREA. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES OVER PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT IS FAVOURABLE FOR ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER ANDAMAN SEA. |
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