簽到天數: 868 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jrchang5|2019-1-22 15:45
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JTWC於01220630Z評級Low。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 220151Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE
AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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