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11S.Riley 穩定西行 二度增強

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-1-22 19:11 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-1-22 19:14 編輯

BoM 升格熱帶低壓並開始發報,有機會2天後命名。
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 11.3 degrees South, 125.9 degrees East , 345 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and 490 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay .
Movement: southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .
IDW60280.png 94S_gefs_latest.png

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簽到天數: 868 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-1-22 15:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於01220630Z評級Low。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 220151Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE
AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

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