霧峰追風者

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：10-20182019 ( 17 S )
名稱：Haleh

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 02 月 27 日 20 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 03 月 02 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 03 月 02 日 15 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 03 月 08 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR )：95 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：115 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：937 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
96S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-5.7S-79.9E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

jrchang5

強度係於04/18Z達到巔峰：MFR--95kts、945hpa；JTWC--115kts、937hpa。
MFR判定08/00Z已轉化為後熱帶低壓。

ZCZC 081
WTIO30 FMEE 080043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/10/20182019
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HALEH)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.5 S / 66.4 E
(TWENTY NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 630 SW: 520 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 330 SE: 440 SW: 370 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/08 12 UTC: 32.3 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/03/09 00 UTC: 35.1 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/09 12 UTC: 37.6 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/03/10 00 UTC: 39.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS A TYPICAL
POST-TROPICAL PATTERN WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING RESIDUAL AND
REMOVED FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER. WV IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS WEST. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES BASED ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OF THE BROAD EX-HALEH'S
CIRCULATION.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED: HALEH IS MOVING GENERALLY
SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SMALL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH
AND ITS EASTWARDS SHIFT. FROM SATURDAY, AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DISPERSION IS RATHER WEAK.
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO
AWIO20 FMEE DAILY BULLETIN ISSUED AT 12Z AND FQIO20 FMEE BULLETIN
ISSUED TWICE DAILY.=
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JTWC 12強度減弱為"二級颶風"( 95kts )，MFR強度減弱為"熱帶氣旋"( 80kt )，持續南下。

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 21.1S 71.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 71.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 22.2S 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 23.5S 69.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 25.0S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 27.0S 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 32.0S 64.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 38.3S 66.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 71.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 920 NM EAST
OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED 20-25NM EYE. A
051116Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
WITH A SOLID EYEWALL SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 TO 6.0 (90 TO 115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WESTERN PERIPHERY IS HINDERING OUTFLOW. TC
17S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH ANOTHER STR
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD, THE STR TO
THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR
TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC
HALEH WILL RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND QUICKLY COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12
AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO STRONG (25-35 KNOTS) VWS AND COOLER
SST VALUES (LESS THAN 26C INITIALLY AND COOLING TO 19C BY TAU 96).
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

WTIO31 FMEE 051241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/10/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HALEH)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 72.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 460 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 320 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 70
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/03/2019 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
24H: 06/03/2019 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 07/03/2019 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 07/03/2019 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 08/03/2019 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
72H: 08/03/2019 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2019 12 UTC: 37.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 10/03/2019 12 UTC: 45.3 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0+
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL A CONTINUE DE S'EFFACER
GRADUELLEMENT AU SEIN D'UN LARGE CDO DONT LES SOMMETS RESTENT ASSEZ
FROIDS. LES ANIMATIONS SATELLITE DANS LES CANAUX VISIBLE ET VAPEUR D'EAU
MONTRENT QUE DE L'AIR SEC SE RAPPROCHANT DU SYSTEME PAR LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST. CETTE INGESTION D'AIR SEC PEUT EXPLIQUER EN PARTIE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ACTUEL D'HALEH. CEPENDANT, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS
DE 1116Z MONTRE QUE L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION INTERNE RESTE SOLIDE, CE QUI
DONNE DE LA CREDIBILITE AU MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE DANS LA PREVISION
POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H.
LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE NE CHANGE PAS AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE
RESTANT GLOBALEMENT MÉRIDIENNE. LA TRAJECTOIRE A COMMENCE A
S'INFLECHIR VERS LE SUD-OUEST AVEC UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
QUI SE DECALE TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST ET VIENT SE GLISSER AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU
S'INCURVER VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE CETTE
DORSALE ET SON DECALAGE VERS L'EST. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME EST
PREVU S'ÉVACUER RAPIDEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND
TALWEG DES LATITUDES MOYENNES ET SUR LA FACE SUD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE. LA DISPERSION DE L'EPS RESTE MOYENNE SUR
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE.
AUJOURD'HUI, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST CONTINUE DE FOURNIR UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE VIA UN CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE, CE QUI
DEVRAIT PERMETTRE A HALEH DE MAINTENIR PEU OU PROU SON INTENSITE SUR
DES EAUX AU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE ENCORE FAVORABLE.
MERCREDI, L'ARRIVÉE D'UN NOUVEAU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT
RENFORCER DE NOUVEAU LA DIVERGENCE CÔTÉ POLAIRE MAIS AUSSI IMPOSER
UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST MODERE EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE
JOURNEE. APRES AVOIR RESISTE LA NUIT PROCHAINE PUIS EN MATINÉE DE
MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENSYUITE RECOMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR. JEUDI,
LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST EST PREVU SE RENFORCER
CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA CIRCULATION PLUS RAPIDE. A PARTIR
DE SAMEDI, ÉVOLUANT SUR DES EAUX AU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE INSUFFISANT,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES.

jrchang5

MFR判定04/18Z近中心最大風速升至95kts，中心氣壓945hpa。強度已近巔峰。

ZCZC 037
WTIO30 FMEE 041807 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 72.4 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SW: 430 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/05 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/05 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/06 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/06 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/07 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/07 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/08 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/09 18 UTC: 39.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+
NNNN

JTWC亦認同一時間近中心最大風速升至115kts，中心氣壓937hpa，已達辛普森颶風等級的C4。

17S HALEH
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 04, 2019:

Location: 19.1°S 72.5°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 mb

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 011
WTXS31 PGTW 042100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.1S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.3S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.6S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.2S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.1S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 37.0S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 72.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

jrchang5

MFR 04/12Z升格為強烈熱帶氣旋，近中心最大風速達90kts。發展較預期迅速。

ZCZC 246
WTIO30 FMEE 041252 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 430 SW: 430 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/05 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/05 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/06 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/06 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/07 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/07 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/08 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/09 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5
NNNN

JTWC則先於04/06Z升格為C3，近中心最大風速105kts；12Z維持同一強度。

17S HALEH
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 04, 2019:

Location: 18.7°S 72.6°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 951 mb

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 72.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 72.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.6S 72.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.6S 71.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.6S 70.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.9S 69.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 26.1S 67.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 30.0S 65.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 34.8S 65.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 25-30 NM WIDE EYE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST SIX HOURS AND THE CLOUD FIELD HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SYMMETRIC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON THE MSI LOOP
AND AN EYE FEATURE IN A 041130Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17S WILL TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AROUND TAU 96, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS TC 17S ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THROUGH
TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE AND THE
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN AT 100 KTS OR GREATER THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AFTER TAU 48, A COMBINATION OF DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, INCREASED VWS,
AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO STEADILY
WEAKEN, FALLING TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TC 17S
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
LIES EAST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF
NAVGEM, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE BULK OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 43
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

jrchang5

MFR 04/00Z升格為熱帶氣旋，近中心最大風速達65kts。預測36小時後可能增強為強烈熱帶氣旋。

ZCZC 760
WTIO30 FMEE 040017 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 73.1 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/4.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 430 SW: 430 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/04 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/05 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/06 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/06 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/07 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/08 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/09 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-
NNNN

JTWC同一時間亦將近中心最大風速上調為90kts，已達辛普森颶風等級的C2。

17S HALEH
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 04, 2019:

Location: 17.1°S 73.3°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb

WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 73.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 73.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 18.0S 73.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.1S 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.1S 71.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.2S 70.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 23.6S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 26.5S 67.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 30.2S 65.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 73.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPANSIVE SYSTEM WITH RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE EQUATORWARD SIDE,
WRAPPING IN TIGHTER INTO A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A
FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 032255Z 37GHZ
NEAR-SURFACE COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). TC 17S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU
24, THE STR WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 115KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL PROMOTE A STEADY WEAKENING AND,
BY TAU 120, TC HALEH WILL BE REDUCED TO 60KTS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 WHERE NAVGEM DEVIATES
SIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF THE MODEL CLUSTER INTO THE STR, SPREADING THE
ENVELOPE UP TO 380NM BY TAU 120. DESPITE THIS SINGLE MODEL DEVIATION,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48 TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY
NAVGEM SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06Z升一級颶風。

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 73.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 73.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 15.8S 73.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 16.8S 73.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 17.8S 72.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 18.7S 72.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 20.8S 70.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 23.2S 68.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 26.0S 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 73.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPRESSIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A BROAD EYE FEATURE FORMING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 030521Z 37GHZ GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 17S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17S
IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 17S WILL
CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK TROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36,
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 17S TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD.
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TC 17S TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOW ONLY
110 NM BY TAU 96 WITH A LARGER ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 120 BUT A
SMALL ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

jrchang5

MFR 02/18Z升格為強烈熱帶風暴，近中心最大風速達50kts，預測巔峰上望80kts。

ZCZC 553
WTIO30 FMEE 021839 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALEH)
2.A POSITION 2019/03/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 74.0 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 220 NW: 90
48 KT NE:  SE:  SW: 90 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/03 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/03 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/04 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/04 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/05 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/05 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/06 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/07 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+
NNNN