WTPN22 PGTW 141700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140921Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.5E TO 18.6N 147.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
151.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT
13.5N 152.8E, IS NOW LOCATED AT 14.4N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 141551Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WEST. 97W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG (45-50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION
NEAR THE 25 KT WARNING THRESHOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151700Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.3E.//
NNNN
WTPN22 PGTW 141700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140921Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.5E TO 18.6N 147.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
151.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT
13.5N 152.8E, IS NOW LOCATED AT 14.4N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 141551Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WEST. 97W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG (45-50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION
NEAR THE 25 KT WARNING THRESHOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151700Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.3E.//
NNNN
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
PERSISTED NEAR 10.3N 159.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 156.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 130752 SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DEVELOPING,
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS CIRCULATION IS SITUATED IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND
FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.3N 159.2E, APPROXIMATELY 865 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PATCHY CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THIS CIRCULATION IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS
LOW.
