1. Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over
the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better
organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a
tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves
toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward
the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend
continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be
initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday,
especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by
Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a
sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern
Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical
depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida
as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
