老農民版夜神月

  特強氣旋風暴  
編號：ARB 02 ( 03 A )
名稱：Hikaa

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 09 月 19 日 16 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 09 月 23 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 09 月 23 日 11 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 09 月 27 日 13 時
登陸地點　　：阿曼

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD )：75 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：85 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓：978 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
96A INVEST 190919 0600 18.0N 72.0E IO 15 1010


以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

Hikaa已於24/14Z~24/15Z前後登陸阿曼

TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20190924/1800Z
TC: HIKAA
NR: 10 PSN: N1942 E05706
MOV: W11KT
C: 0984HPA
MAX WIND: 50KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 25/0000Z N1936 E05600
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 40 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 25/0060Z N1930 E05500
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 25KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 25/1200Z N1918 E05354
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 15KT
RMK: NIL NXT MSG: 20190925/0230Z
TOO: 250230 HRS IST

t02436

即將登陸阿曼。

TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20190924/1200Z
TC: HIKAA
NR: 09
PSN: N1948 E05818
MOV: W11KT
C: 0978HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 24/1800Z N1942 E05654
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 60 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 25/0000Z N1936 E05548
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 25/0600Z N1924 E05448
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 30KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 25/1200Z N1912 E05354
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 15KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190924/2100Z
TOO: 242000 HRS IST

老農民版夜神月

IMD判定於24/06Z及24/12Z達到巔峰,達VSCS,強度75節

TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20190924/0600Z
TC: HIKAA
NR: 08
PSN: N2000 E05930
MOV: W15KT
C: 0980HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 24/1200Z N1954 E05812
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 65 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 24/1800Z N1948 E05654
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 50KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 25/0000Z N1942 E05548
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 25/0600Z N1930 E05448
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 25KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190924/1200Z
TOO: 241355 HRS IST

TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20190924/1200Z
TC: HIKAA
NR: 09
PSN: N1948 E05818
MOV: W11KT
C: 0978HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 24/1800Z N1942 E05654
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 60 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 25/0000Z N1936 E05548
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 25/0600Z N1924 E05448
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 30KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 25/1200Z N1912 E05354
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 15KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190924/2100Z
TOO: 242000 HRS IST

JTWC則判定於24/00Z達到巔峰,達C2,強度85節

WTIO31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 60.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 60.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 20.0N 58.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 19.7N 55.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 19.1N 53.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 60.3E.
24SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (HIKAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A 14 NM
OBLONG EYE, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) BY PGTW AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T4.8 (85 KTS) BY CIMSS, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AS TC 03A TRANSITS UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF THE ARABIAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A
WESTERLY TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND TAU 18. AFTER LANDFALL, EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AS TC 03A SHIFTS TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
COURSE AND FRICTION FROM LAND INTERACTION RAPIDLY DETERIORATES THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 36, TC 03A WILL WEAKEN TO 35 KTS. THERE IS OVERALL
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
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t02436

預計18Z以前登陸阿曼。

老農民版夜神月

JTWC目前定強60節,並預測短時間內此系統仍有持續增強的趨勢

WTIO31 PGTW 231500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 63.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.3N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.1N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.7N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.4N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 62.9E.
23SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265
NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
BT
#0001
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JTWC18Z定強已達70節

03A HIKAA 190923 1800 20.1N 62.3E IO 70 985

老農民版夜神月

IMD23/03Z升格03A為氣旋風暴,並命名Hikaa
rsmc01.pdf (335.22 KB, 下載次數: 5)

2019-9-23 15:10 上傳

點擊文件名下載附件

老農民版夜神月

JTWC22/21Z升格03A

WTIO31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 67.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 67.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 20.4N 65.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 20.3N 63.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 20.2N 61.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 20.0N 59.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 19.6N 56.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 19.2N 54.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 66.8E.
22SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN OVERALL COMPACT SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
OVERTOP OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING
FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND A 221626Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A LOW REFLECTIVITY NOTCH FEATURE TO THE EAST OF A POCKET OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ON THE LOWER
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND T3.0/45KTS FROM
KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SMALL AREA
OF 30 KNOT WIND BARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH A REGION OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR MASIRAH, OMAN AFTER TAU 48 AND TRACK INLAND. THE
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT AN EXTENSIVE
INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF
40 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK. THE MODELS DO VARY IN ALONG
TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 36 HOWEVER THERE IS STILL OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z,
231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
NNNN