老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 68.6E TO 20.4N 61.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 68.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 70.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 68.1E, APPROXIMATELY 560
NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221135Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A 220448Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS 96A
HAS RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, BUT IS MOVING INTO AN AREA
OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS OMAN.
ADDITIONALLY, ECMWF SHOWS 96A REACHING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
BY TAU 30. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC21/2300Z提升評級為Medium

ABIO10 PGTW 212300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/212300Z-221800ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.2N 70.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 69.9E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 211901Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS 96A IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-25 KNOTS) AND HAS VERY LITTLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, ECMWF SHOWS 96A REACHING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
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TXIO22 KNES 212104
TCSNIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96A)

B.  21/2030Z

C.  19.7N

D.  69.4E

E.  FIVE/MET-8

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...ZHU

20190921   2030    19.7   -69.4     T1.5/1.5       96A  96A            
20190921   1430    19.4   -69.7     T1.5/1.5       96A  96A            
20190921   0830    19.2   -69.8     T1.0/1.0       96A  96A            

96A INVEST 190921 0000 19.4N 70.4E IO 20 1002

96A INVEST 190921 1800 19.2N 69.9E IO 25 1002

老農民版夜神月

JTWC19/1800Z評級Low

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.0N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK, PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. A 191321Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ARC OF
DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION EXTENDING
EAST OVER LAND NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
NEAR MUMBAI HAVE RECORDED LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND. 96A
IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY, DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE KATHIAWAR
PENINSULA, BEFORE ACCELERATING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN WEAK, LIKELY NOT REACHING THE BASIN
WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS.  NAVGEM IS THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IN
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY, THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FARTHER NORTH,
TAKING THE STORM INTO THE GULF OF OMAN AND EVENTUALLY THE PERSIAN
GULF AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS ASSESSED AS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
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