老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z升格27W

27W TWENTYSEVE 191112 1800 12.1N 130.4E WPAC 25 1002

king111807

菲律賓東方目前有一個熱帶擾動９１Ｗ正在發展，
未來４天逐漸整合，甚至有成為颱風的可能，
在副熱帶高壓推送下，
週日(17)就會抵達菲律賓呂宋島。

以目前資料研判，
９１Ｗ對台灣不會有直接影響，
但當他通過菲律賓，進入南海之後，
要特別留意外圍水氣可能飄向台灣，
到時候將會帶來些許降雨，
時間點落在週日(17)～下週二(20)。

因９１Ｗ路徑還存有些變數，
可能北一點、南一些，
也會決定週末到下週天氣好壞及雨量多寡，
這是未來幾日的觀察重點，
提醒大家多留意囉！

----
圖資：RAMMB、CWB、EC、GFS

jrchang5

JMA、JTWC分別發布GW、TCFA；CWB亦跟進升格為TD32。

熱帯低気圧
令和元年11月12日04時30分 発表

<12日03時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 12度40分(12.7度)
東経 131度50分(131.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<13日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 12度30分(12.5度)
東経 128度50分(128.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

WTPN21 PGTW 112130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 132.6E TO 13.3N 127.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111118Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 132.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY
496 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111831Z 89GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
ELONGATED, RAGGED, BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION MOSTLY ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 91W IS CURRENTLY IN
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY BEING ON THE EDGE
OF UNFAVORABLE (15 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONGER WINDS (>25 KTS) ALONG THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SURGE WINDS BEGIN TO WRAP INTO THE LLC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122130Z.//
NNNN

第 32 號熱帶性低氣壓

》颱風現況
2019年11月12日02時
      中心位置　北緯 12.50 度　東經 132.00 度
      過去移動方向   -
      過去移動時速   -
      中心氣壓   1002 百帕
      近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
》颱風預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     西 時速 14 公里
     預測 11月12日14時
     中心在 北緯 12.50 度 東經 130.50 度
     中心氣壓   1000 百帕
     近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 110 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     西 時速 14 公里
     預測 11月13日02時
     中心在 北緯 12.50 度 東經 128.90 度
     中心氣壓   998 百帕
     近中心最大風速 18 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 25 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑80公里
     70%機率半徑 170 公里
預測 24 小時有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

老農民版夜神月

JTWC10/2130Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 818 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  A PARTIAL 102104Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 91W WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.