(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10N
144.2E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170833Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK BUT SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
BELOW FLARING CONVECTION ROTATING IN THE MIDLEVELS. LOW (5-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO BROAD
WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (29-31C) SSTS IN THE VICINITY ARE
CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BUILDS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
PRIOR TO CROSSING OVER LUZON AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
