Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 222157 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F CENTRE[1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 8.1S
165.6E AT 222100UTC. POSITION POOR. TD01F SLOW MOVING.
CONVECTIONS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OVER THE
SUPPOSED LLCC BUT ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. TD01F LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENT. SST IS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVE SOUTHWARDS.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3S 163.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 248
NM NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. A 220721Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 90P IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3S
163.3E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA
OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH AND WEST
QUADRANTS. A 220445Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 90P IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, COUPLED WITH LOW
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
