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編號　　　　：91 S
擾動編號日期：2021 年 04 月 07 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 04 月 11 日 20 時
91S.INVEST.15kts-993mb-9S-99.4E

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BoM展望不再提到此系統

IDW10800

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 6:15 am WST on Monday 12 April 2021
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 14 April 2021.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

At 0500 AWST Monday 12 April Ex-Tropical Cyclone Seroja was approximately 35 kilometres southeast of Merredin and travelling southeast at 60 kilometres per hour. It was analysed to have lost its deep, tropical structure and was subsequently declassified as a tropical cyclone. Damaging wind gusts and a period of heavy rainfall could still be experienced over southern parts of WA today and a Severe Weather Warning is current for southeastern parts of the South West Land Division, southern Goldfields and western Eucla. Refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for latest details.
There are no significant tropical systems expected in the region for at least the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low

老農民版夜神月

JTWC取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 101.6E HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND NO LONGER HAS MODEL
SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFICATION.

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JTWC06Z降格擾動

91S INVEST 210411 0000 13.9S 103.3E SHEM 20 1008

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BoM不再看好發展

Another tropical low (24U) was about 140 kilometres east southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands at 8am WST Saturday 10 April. It is forecast to continue moving east southeast, further from the islands. There is only a slight chance of it briefly developing overnight tonight or early Sunday, before weakening by Monday.
There are no other significant systems expected in the region for at least the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday: Low
Monday:Very Low

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BoM將發展評級降至Low

Another tropical low (24U) lies well to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is expected to move southeast over the weekend passing close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Saturday. It is unlikely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone though the Cocos (Keeling) Islands are likely to experience increased squally shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday with gusty winds and possible heavy falls.
Thankfully, there are no other significant systems expected in the region for at least the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low
Monday: Low

老農民版夜神月

BoM維持展望為Moderate
JTWC則維持TD,20Z新報維持評級Low

SH, 91, 2021040818, , BEST, 0, 102S, 950E, 25, 1003, TD

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 155.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY
407 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 081731Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, REVEALS DISORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
PARTIALLY OBSCURE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ELONGATED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS. INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P
WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST, REMAINING LARGELY
ASYMMETRIC, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

風場支持，JTWC升格TD

91S INVEST 210407 1200 9.8S 91.9E SHEM 25 1005