JTWC取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 101.6E HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND NO LONGER HAS MODEL
SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFICATION.

BoM維持展望為Moderate
JTWC則維持TD,20Z新報維持評級Low

SH, 91, 2021040818, , BEST, 0, 102S, 950E, 25, 1003, TD

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 155.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY
407 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 081731Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, REVEALS DISORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
PARTIALLY OBSCURE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ELONGATED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS. INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P
WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST, REMAINING LARGELY
ASYMMETRIC, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

風場支持，JTWC升格TD

91S INVEST 210407 1200 9.8S 91.9E SHEM 25 1005