老農民版夜神月

JTWC21Z開始發報，並預測目前便是巔峰

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 167.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 167.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 26.0S 169.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 28.4S 171.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 167.7E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
WELL-ORGANIZED CORE CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING. EARLIER RADAR
IMAGERY FROM NEW CALEDONIA HAD SHOWN AN EYE FEATURE AND CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DESPITE THE SYSTEM'S
HYBRID NATURE AND LOCATION WITHIN FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
AND PERSISTENT LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), TC 28P WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST, EAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS AS
INDICATED ON A 101848Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOUMEA (91592) AT 10/1500Z ALONG THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WERE NNW AT 35 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF
999MB. ADDITIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA TONTOUTA (91590) FROM
10/1330-1400Z INDICATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 48 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP
NEAR 998MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SIGNATURE IN EIR, DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 35
KNOTS, WHICH IS BETTER ALIGNED WITH SURFACE WIND AND SLP REPORTS. TC
28P IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24, WHICH WILL PRODUCE
STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 24. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

在未發TCFA的情形下，JTWC升格28P

28P TWENTYEIGH 210410 1800 23.4S 167.2E SHEM 35 999

dom

VMGD03Z判定中心通過新喀里多尼亞

dom

VMGD開始發報, 首報不看好命名

Information Number 1 on Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 3:08pm VUT Saturday 10 April 2021.

At 11:00am local time, a Tropical Low with a central pressure estimated at
1002hPa was located near 19.5S 163.7E. The Tropical Low is positioned at the
center right of square letter D, number 10 (D,10) in the New Vanuatu Tropical
Cyclone Tracking map [center right of square letter C, number 9 (C,9) in the
Old Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking map]. This is about 420 KM northwest of
Noumea. In the past 6 hours, the system was moving in a southeasterly direction
at 43 KM/HR. The potential for the system to develop further into a tropical
cyclone and moves towards Vanuatu in the next 12 to 24 hours is low.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                     Position                 Intensity
+06 hours (5pm, 10 Apr)           20.8S, 165.1E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11pm, 10 Apr)          22.1S, 166.4E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5am, 11 Apr)           23.4S, 167.7E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11am, 11 Apr)          24.8S, 169.0E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11pm, 11 Apr)          27.0S, 171.3E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11am, 12 Apr)          28.9S, 173.4E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+60 hours (11pm, 12 Apr)          30.6S, 175.4E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+72 hours (11am, 13 Apr)          32.2S, 177.6E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)

At this stage, the Tropical Low does not pose any significant threat to the islands
of Vanuatu. However, isolated heavy rainfalls are expected over the northern and
central islands tonight and later extending to the southern islands. Possible
flooding is expected over low lying areas and areas close to river banks, including
coastal flooding. People living near these areas are advised to take precautions.

A severe weather warning has been issued for northern and central islands and a
marine strong wind warning is issued for the central and southern waters of Vanuatu.

People are advised to listen to Radio Vanuatu and all other Radio Outlets to
get an update information on this system.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department is closely monitoring the
system and will issue the next information at 12:00am or earlier if the situation
changes.  

dom

FMS編號13F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD13F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.4S 163.2E
AT 092100UTC SLOW MOVING . POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.
DEEP CONVECTION LIES PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
THE SYTEM IS LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODEL HAVE ALSO PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWRDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z將定強上調至30節,且系集預測仍有增強空間
就看機構們怎麼認定了

92P INVEST 210409 1800 17.4S 162.4E SHEM 30 1000

老農民版夜神月

JTWC提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 157.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 162.4E, APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091426Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE
INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格TD

92P INVEST 210409 0000 14.1S 156.9E SHEM 25 1004