老農民版夜神月

BoM在展望中稍微地提到92P,並認為其兩天內便將離開其轄區,接下來就看FMS會不會想管這隻了

A tropical low is expected to develop close to the Eastern Region border [160 degrees East], south of the Solomon Islands from Friday. The low is expected to move southeastwards and out of the Region by late Saturday.

There are no other significant tropical lows in the Region and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:
Very Low
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Very Low

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JTWC評級Low

  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.6S 155.4E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY,
PAPUA, NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
CYCLING CONVECTION OF AN OBSCURE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST
92P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER AN AREA OF WEAK (10-20KTS)
VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

老農民版夜神月

數值系集對其反應明顯，預測強度的部分GFS還是明顯較EC強些