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29S.Jobo 登陸莫三比克

簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2021-4-15 18:00 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶氣旋  
編號:16-20202021 ( 29 S )
名稱:Jobo
20210421.1600.msg-4.ir.29S.JOBO.60kts.992mb.9.7S.47.8E.100pc.jpg
  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2021 04 15 17
JTWC升格日期:2021 04 21 08
命名日期  :2021 04 21 03
撤編日期  :2021 04 25 08
登陸地點  :莫三比克


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :65 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):60 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓985 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

95S.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-10.0N-77.0E
605E9084-9865-46EF-8EDE-6BD99476AD9A.jpeg
以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-4-25 09:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC00Z降格擾動
29S JOBO 210425 0000 8.1S 38.4E SHEM 20 1006
5DC73FF5-CC8D-4B82-BC64-50951D1003D8.jpeg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-4-25 04:40 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布Final Warning
WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 8.0S 39.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.0S 39.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 8.0S 38.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 8.0S 38.8E.
24APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 73
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC JOBO WEAKENED RAPIDLY AS IT
APPROACHED THE TANZANIAN COAST WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A COHESIVE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 241801Z ASCAT-A IMAGE INDICATES
CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW (10-20 KNOTS) ALONG THE
COAST WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG 8S. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241623Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL HEAVY
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND NO EVIDENCE
OF AN LLC AS REFLECTED IN THE ASCAT DATA. THUS, IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED AS A WEAK 20-25 KNOT SYSTEM. THE
REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK INLAND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT TO TANZANIA. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN


sh2921 (2).gif 29S_241800sair.jpg

LATEST - 2021-04-25T043934.672.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-4-25 03:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC判定已登陸,18Z降TD
29S JOBO 210424 1800 7.8S 38.6E SHEM 30 1004
TPXS10 PGTW 241827

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO)

B. 24/1800Z

C. XX.XX

D. XXX.XX

E. N/A/MET8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   YOUNG
sfcplot_29S_latest.png 20210424.1800.msg-4.ir.29S.JOBO.30kts.1004mb.7.8S.38.6E.100pc.jpg
20210424.1623.f17.91pct91h91v.29S.JOBO.35kts.1004mb.7.8S.39.7E.070pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-4-24 21:08 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR12Z發佈最終報
WTIO30 FMEE 241219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/16/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 39.9 E
(SEVEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/25 00 UTC: 6.5 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS DISSIPATING AGAIN, IT REMAINS
PRESENT ONLY ALONG THE COAST OF TANZANIA SOUTH OF ZANZIBAR ISLAND AND
OVER THE EXTREME NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY CONSTRAINT, WEAKENING AT MID LEVEL,
BUT INCREASING IN ALTITUDE. IT IS A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD LAND IN
THE NEXT HOURS OR IN THE BEGINIG OF THE NIGHT, FILLING UP QUICKLY
WHEN IT ARRIVES ON LAND.

WITH A LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW, ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, JOBO
IS APPROACHING THE TANZANIAN COAST AND IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 40KM FROM
THE COAST. JOBO IS EXPECTED TO LAND NEAR THE CITY OF DAR EL SALAAM
AND THE ISLAND OF ZANZIBAR.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS AT THE LANDING OF JOBO, THE IMPACTS WILL
BE LIMITED IN TERMS OF WIND BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LANDING AREA BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA, AND EVEN OVER NORTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. FOR THE NEXT 24/48 HOURS, WE CAN EXPECT TO HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN REACH 200/300 MM IN 24 HOURS (EVEN VERY
LOCALLY 400 MM), THAT IS TO SAY QUANTITIES EQUIVALENT TO THE MONTHLY
ACCUMULATION FOR A MONTH OF APRIL.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.
205411dtljt4s9po99okk3.png
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dom|2021-4-24 16:12 | 顯示全部樓層
即將登陸,JTWC06Z定強TS下限
29S JOBO 210424 0600 7.9S 40.7E SHEM 35 1005
8F4816A0-7CD4-4C1F-80D6-E1112FF44C13.jpeg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-4-24 08:35 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR00Z降格填塞中氣旋
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT numéro 16
(JOBO)

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 75 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1003 hPa.
Position le 24 avril à 04 heures locales: 8.0 Sud / 41.5 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 2065 km au secteur: NORD-OUEST
Distance de Mayotte: 670 km au secteur: NORD-OUEST
Déplacement: OUEST-NORD-OUEST, à 17 km/h.
EB0FEB42-ED71-4337-B40A-D920ED8CF6C3.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-4-24 04:13 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR新報預測其將於一天內成為填塞中氣旋,随後登陸莫三比克
WTIO30 FMEE 231859
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 42.3 E
(EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 95 SW: 185 NW: 20
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 20 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 10 SW: 10 NW: 35

24H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

SWI_20202021 (7).png 20210423.1900.msg-1.ir.29S.JOBO.35kts.1005mb.8.1S.42.3E.100pc.jpg
20210423.1357.f16.91pct91h91v.29S.JOBO.40kts.1002mb.8.5S.43.4E.070pc.jpg 20210423.1357.f16.91h.29S.JOBO.40kts.1002mb.8.5S.43.4E.070pc.jpg
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