|
|
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-4-19 09:42 編輯
JTWC00Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 61.1E, APPROXIMATELY 721 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 182054Z
AMSR2 GW1 89HZ IMAGE DEPICT A RECENT FLARE OF CONVECTION OBSCURING A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
MARGINAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD WITH
MINOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
OUTLIERS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT TO TC STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
|
|
