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03E.Carlos

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-13 04:38 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升至High,90%
1. Recent satellite and microwave imagery indicate that the area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become better-defined while
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of
organization. Therefore, this system will likely become a tropical
depression later today or tonight as it moves slowly westward. Early
next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1 (11).png two_pac_5d1 (11).png
92E_gefs_latest (5).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-13 00:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 121530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 121.3W TO 12.2N 126.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121206Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 122.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7N
122.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1283 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 1222Z 91H GHS SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND NORTH OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VWS AND FAIR OUTLFOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131530Z.
//
NNNN

ep9221.gif 92E_121500sair.jpg
92E_gefs_latest (4).png 92E_intensity_latest (3).png
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簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-6-12 08:37 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升至Medium
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization today
in association with a broad area of low pressure located about a
hundred miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear somewhat conducive for additional development, and
a tropical depression could still form by this weekend, as long as
the system remains over water while drifting north-northeastward.
Heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your
local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization this
afternoon in association with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some additional development over the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch
7C7EE0EC-0FC6-4521-A732-29C3EA5E672B.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-10 23:57 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC復編92E
2. A broad area of low pressure along the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Some gradual development is possible
over the next few days as the system moves slowly westward.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
two_pac_2d2.png two_pac_5d2.png 92E_gefs_latest (3).png 92E_intensity_latest (2).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-9 02:33 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC於展望中已不再提到此系統
two_pac_2d0 (3).png 92E_gefs_latest (2).png
92E_tracks_latest.png 92E_intensity_latest (1).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-8 20:26 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC將展望降至0%,已幾乎不可能獲得升格
1. A broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity well west of its center.  
Significant development of this system is not expected due to strong
upper-level winds and dry air in the surrounding environment.  The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.


two_pac_2d0 (1).png two_pac_2d1 (2).png
two_pac_5d1 (4).png
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簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-6-8 07:37 | 顯示全部樓層
展望降至Low
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become less organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 700
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.   
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly
unfavorable, and development of this system is now unlikely.  The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador,
and Guatemala in a day or two.  Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.  Regardless of development, this system
could produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico later this week and into the weekend.  See products
from your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
AE56E379-D672-492D-8B47-4D9EF4C58801.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-8 04:52 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-8 04:54 編輯

ASCAT風場,LLCC還是有些問題
要升格可能得看點NHC臉色了

20210607.1518.mta.ASCAT.wind.92E.INVEST.30kts-1008mb.131N.1102W.25km.noqc.jpeg 20210607.1518.mta.ASCAT.wind.92E.INVEST.30kts-1008mb.131N.1102W.25km.jpeg
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