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2104 小熊 於北部灣短暫發展 登陸越南

簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-6-12 10:52 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC升格05W,初報上望40節
WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 110.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 110.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 18.8N 107.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 19.5N 106.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 20.5N 104.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 21.3N 104.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 109.5E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
29 NM EAST OF SANYA, HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z,
122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN
104158zrz4usdr30de44rp.gif
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簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-6-12 10:05 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-6-12 10:16 編輯

JMA00Z判定登陸海南島,逐漸深入北部灣
熱帯低気圧a
2021年06月12日10時20分発表
12日09時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        海南島
中心位置        北緯18度40分(18.7度)
東経109度40分(109.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
12日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        トンキン湾
予報円の中心        北緯19度10分(19.2度)
東経107度25分(107.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        95km(52NM)
13日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        ベトナム
予報円の中心        北緯20度0分(20.0度)
東経105度50分(105.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        994hPa
最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)
14日09時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        ベトナム
予報円の中心        北緯21度5分(21.1度)
東経103度55分(103.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        998hPa
予報円の半径        240km(130NM)
092752kyxu376d147opduu.jpg
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簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-6-11 20:06 | 顯示全部樓層
WTPN21 PGTW 111200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9N 113.0E TO 19.3N 107.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110820Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 112.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110820Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT CONVECTIVE BANDS PREVIOUSLY DISPLACED
NEARLY 100NM ARE NOW DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE SYSTEM STILL EXISTS UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20
KTS) OFFSET BY A LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY PRIOR TO
MOVING OVER HAINAN ISLAND. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL RE-
INTENSIFY WHEN IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER VWS
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121200Z.
//
NNNN
F02863D3-F035-4848-A656-C27F37655F36.gif
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簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-11 19:56 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-11 20:54 編輯

JTWC即將發布TCFA
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110820Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT CONVECTIVE BANDS PREVIOUSLY DISPLACED
NEARLY 100NM ARE NOW DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE SYSTEM STILL EXISTS UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20
KTS) OFFSET BY A LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY PRIOR
TO MOVING OVER HAINAN ISLAND. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL RE-
INTENSIFY WHEN IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER VWS
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 111130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

abpwsair - 2021-06-11T195607.096.jpg 20210611.1230.himawari-8.ir.92W.INVEST.20kts.998mb.18.1N.112.4E.100pc.jpg 20210611.1048.f17.91pct91h91v.92W.INVEST.20kts.1000mb.18N.112.7E.095pc.jpg wpac (2).png
eastasia (2).png
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簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-6-11 17:01 | 顯示全部樓層
CWB升格TD05
現況
2021年06月11日14時

中心位置在北緯 17.9 度,東經 113.3 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

西北西 時速 16 公里
預測 06月12日02時
中心位置在北緯 18.7 度,東經 111.7 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為

西北西 時速 20 公里
預測 06月12日14時
中心位置在北緯 19.4 度,東經 109.5 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 150 公里
預測 24 小時內有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢
預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為

西北西 時速 18 公里
預測 06月13日02時
中心位置在北緯 20.0 度,東經 107.5 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 220 公里
預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為

西北西 時速 14 公里
預測 06月13日14時
中心位置在北緯 20.8 度,東經 106.2 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 290 公里
預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為

西北 時速 7 公里
預測 06月14日14時
中心位置在北緯 21.9 度,東經 105.0 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 390 公里
138DDAC3-C1D0-4A8D-BF29-731EE7E550DF.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-6-11 15:26 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-6-12 09:58 編輯

JMA06Z發佈GW
11日15時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
中心位置        北緯17度55分(17.9度)
東経113度20分(113.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1002hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

12日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        トンキン湾
予報円の中心        北緯19度10分(19.2度)
東経108度30分(108.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

13日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        トンキン湾
予報円の中心        北緯20度10分(20.2度)
東経106度40分(106.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        240km(130NM)

14日15時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        ベトナム
予報円の中心        北緯21度40分(21.7度)
東経104度30分(104.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
予報円の半径        370km(200NM)
151210msf88hes0uns4nj9.jpg
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dom|2021-6-11 14:26 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC06Z評級提升至Medium
  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 115.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.4E, APPROXIMATELY
273 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102335Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM
THE CENTER. IN ADDITION, AN 110230Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE SHOWS THAT
THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE CENTER,
INDICATING THAT 92W REMAINS A MONSOON DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20 KTS) OFFSET BY A CURRENT
LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C) GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
STEADILY CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES PRIOR TO MOVING OVER HAINAN
ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING
DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL
RE-INTENSIFY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER
VWS OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW
ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
400E4095-49CC-4D39-AD40-FA24636BFFE0.jpeg
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dom|2021-6-10 16:34 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-6-11 14:27 編輯

JTWC09Z評級Low
    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.6N 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100534Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER AND THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS EXTENDING TO
APPROXIMATELY 100NM FROM THE CENTER, INDICATING THAT 92W IS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS (<15 KTS) AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30C) OFFSET BY A CURRENT LACK OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT STEADILY CONSOLIDATES AND
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND
REORIENT THUS INCREASING DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

61187D4A-619C-476D-8525-BDBCB728289F.jpeg


JMA預測兩天內增強為TD,未來將趨向海南島
20210610074030_0_Z__C_010000_20210610000000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas48_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
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