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03L.Claudette 登陸路州

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-19 05:02 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-19 05:27 編輯

ASCAT最新風場及AMSR2最新底層掃描 20210618.1445.mta.ASCAT.wind.03L.THREE.30kts-1007mb.259N.911W.25km.jpeg 20210618.1445.mta.ASCAT.wind.03L.THREE.30kts-1007mb.259N.911W.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210618.1937.gw1.89pct89h89v.03L.THREE.30kts.1007mb.25.9N.91.1W.74pc.jpg 20210618.1937.gw1.89hbt.03L.THREE.30kts.1007mb.25.9N.91.1W.74pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-19 04:54 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-19 05:24 編輯

即將登陸,NHC21Z仍維持潛在熱帶氣旋
000
WTNT43 KNHC 182033
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

A few hours ago, an ASCAT-A pass indicated that maximum winds were
about 40 kt well east of the ill-defined center of circulation, and
the initial wind speed was increased to that value at the
intermediate advisory at 18Z.  Recent surface observations just
offshore of southeastern Louisiana have been reporting maximum winds
between 30 and 40 kt.  Based on a combination of these data, and
since the structure of the system has not changed much during the
past few hours, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this
advisory.  Although the disturbance has wind speeds of tropical
storm intensity, it has not been named a tropical storm yet since
its center is ill defined and broad as evident in the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations.  Regardless of its
status, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds are spreading
across portions of the northern Gulf coast, and these conditions
will spread inland through tonight.

There has not been much change to the track forecast reasoning. The
cyclone is moving northward at about 14 kt, and a general north to
north-northeast motion is expected through landfall, which is likely
to occur overnight or early Saturday morning.  After the system
moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast
across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes
embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical
ridge.  The models remain in relatively good agreement, and only
small changes were made to the previous track forecast.

There is some opportunity for a little strengthening during the next
6 to 12 hours before the system makes landfall.  However,
significant intensification is not expected due to the cyclone's
broad and asymmetric structure, and ongoing west-southwesterly
vertical wind shear.  After landfall, weakening is forecast, and
dissipation is still predicted to occur by 72 hours. However, it
should be noted that the ECMWF and UKMET models hold onto the
vortex for a while longer.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding tonight and through the
weekend along the Central Gulf coast.  Flood impacts will spread
northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.

2. Tropical storm conditions have begun along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.  These
winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 27.9N  91.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  19/0600Z 29.5N  90.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
24H  19/1800Z 31.4N  89.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
36H  20/0600Z 32.8N  87.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
48H  20/1800Z 33.8N  84.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
60H  21/0600Z 34.7N  81.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

203446_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png al032021 (2).gif
20210618.2030.goes-16.vis.2km.03L.THREE.30kts.1007mb.25.9N.91.1W.pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-18 04:56 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-18 05:28 編輯

NHC初報認定為PTC,並上望40KT
880
WTNT43 KNHC 172034
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with
the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is gradually becoming better organized.  Deep convection is
beginning to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of
the system, similar to what one might see in a developing
subtropical cyclone.  Although the upper-level winds are not
particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear
over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical
cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so.  Given the proximity of
the disturbance to land, which requires tropical storm warnings at
this time, advisories are being initiated on this system as a  
potential tropical cyclone.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was still
rather broad.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently
investigating the system and has not yet found a well-defined
center.  Maximum winds based on surface observations and the
scatterometer pass are near 25 kt.  Numerical intensity guidance do
not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system
reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end
of the guidance.

Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial
motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain.  The system is expected
to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the
next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf
Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a
mid-level anticyclone near Florida.  The official track forecast is
closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions.  It should be noted,
however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center
near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest
Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable
flash, urban, and small stream flooding beginning Friday and
continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf coast and
spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.  

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 22.9N  92.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  18/0600Z 24.5N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H  18/1800Z 26.5N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  19/0600Z 29.0N  92.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  19/1800Z 31.5N  89.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
60H  20/0600Z 34.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
72H  20/1800Z 35.0N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brennan

203516_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png al032021.gif
20210617.2100.goes-16.ircolor.92L.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.21N.93W.100pc.jpg GOES211020211684GFo7R.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-18 03:38 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-18 04:57 編輯

ASCAT稍早前風場,LLCC型態仍不算好
18Z亦依然判定性質為LO,就看21Z報出來時如何認定了 03L_tracks_latest.png
LATEST (12).jpg LATEST (13).jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-18 03:35 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC稍早前評90%/90%,现在升格03L,不知是否為PTC
1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little
better organized today.  This system is expected to move generally
northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to
form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.  
A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM
CDT (2100 UTC).  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.

Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico during the next couple of days.  Heavy rains will
also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.  
Please consult products from your local meteorological service for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

two_atl_2d1 (6).png two_atl_5d1 (6).png
20210617.1840.goes-16.vis.2km.92L.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.21N.93W.pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-17 22:54 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升至90%/90%
1. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
is producing widespread but disorganized cloudiness, showers, and
thunderstorms.  This system is expected to move northward, and a
tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form over the
west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.  An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next few days.  Heavy rains
should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on
Friday.  Please consult products from your local meteorological
service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d0 (5).png two_atl_2d1 (5).png
two_atl_5d1 (5).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-17 22:51 | 顯示全部樓層
FWC-N發布TCFA
WTNT21 KNGU 171400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (92L)//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 92.5W TO 24.6N 91.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5N 92.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD REGION OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE LOCATED ABOUT 100NM NORTH OF THE TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS SYSYTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE WEST-CENTRALL GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181400Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
al922021.gif 20210617.1420.goes-16.vis.2km.92L.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.21N.93W.pc.jpg
20210617.1114.f16.91pct91h91v.92L.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.21N.93W.075pc.jpg 92L_gefs_latest (2).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-16 19:48 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升至High,70%/90%
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area.  This system will move little today and tonight, and
little if any development is expected during that time due
to interaction with land.  However, the broad disturbance should
begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves
across the western Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days.  Heavy rains should also begin
to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.  Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d0 (4).png two_atl_2d1 (4).png
two_atl_5d1 (4).png
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