開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

03L.Claudette 登陸路州

查看數: 1868 評論數: 18 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2021-6-13 02:46

正文摘要:

  熱帶風暴   編號:03 L 名稱:Claudette 以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

dom 發表於 2021-6-22 21:29
NHC12Z撤銷評級
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage associated with
the tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Some additional development of this disturbance is possible
over the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less
conducive for further organization by Thursday. The system is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
F3A99CD0-618A-4788-930D-45B5865CF844.png
dom 發表於 2021-6-22 11:06
NHC判定成為殘餘低壓
888
WTNT43 KNHC 220257
TCDAT3

Remnants Of Claudette Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 21 2021

Recent scatterometer data show that the system has opened up into a
northwest to southeast-oriented trough.  Therefore Claudette has
dissipated as a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory.  The
remnants of Claudette should continue to move rapidly
east-northeastward and weaken over the next day or so.

Additional information on the remnants of Claudette can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 39.0N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
025814_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
dom 發表於 2021-6-21 17:14
NHC09Z升格TS
000
WTNT43 KNHC 210841
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
500 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

The elongated low-level center of Claudette is located over eastern
North Carolina this morning, while a curved band of convection
continues pushing eastward across the adjacent coastal and offshore
waters. Surface pressures have fallen slightly overnight near the
estimated center position, and Frying Pan Shoals buoy 41013 off the
coast of southeastern North Carolina reported a brief period of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds shortly after 06 UTC.
Therefore, Claudette's initial intensity is raised to 35 kt with
this advisory, making it a tropical storm once again.

Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward as it is
steered by a mid- to upper-level trough that is approaching the
eastern United States. The storm will move off the North Carolina
coast within the next few hours, and a bit more strengthening is
possible today as it passes near the north wall of the Gulf Stream.
The official NHC forecast hangs onto Claudette as a tropical cyclone
through tonight, then quickly transitions it to a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 h. The time of dissipation is also moved up a day
earlier with this advisory, which is consistent with the latest
global model fields that show an open trough approaching Atlantic
Canada. Otherwise, the official NHC forecast remains very similar to
the previous one, and the track closely follows the multi-model
consensus.

Some of the global guidance suggests that Claudette could lose its
closed low-level circulation and open up into a trough soon after
emerging into the western Atlantic Ocean later today.  Given the
current poor center definition, it is a plausible alternative
scenario that Claudette dissipates faster than shown below.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue over the North Carolina
coast this morning. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast through this morning, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 35.6N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
12H  21/1800Z 37.0N  74.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H  22/0600Z 39.5N  68.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  22/1800Z 42.8N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
C24DBE84-2863-4CE1-AE81-D8E41C1B92E0.png
dom 發表於 2021-6-19 17:19
NHC命名Claudette,判定達到巔峰並登陸紐奧良,出海後有望短暫增強為TS
000
WTNT43 KNHC 190859
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has
enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be
considered a tropical storm.  While the organization is not
classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics,
the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system
is now Tropical Storm Claudette.  The initial wind speed remains 40
kt, in line with surface observations and radar.  These winds are
primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the
cyclone well away from the center.

Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt.  The storm
should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day
or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical
ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone.  
The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the
reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system
regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to
72 hours.  Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one
and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western
Atlantic Ocean.  The new intensity forecast is more conservative
than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory.
Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center.  Impacts
along the northern Gulf coast will continue.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the
afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast,
with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions
of the Southeast.  

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.  These
winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 29.6N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
12H  19/1800Z 30.9N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
24H  20/0600Z 32.2N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  20/1800Z 33.3N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H  21/0600Z 34.2N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H  21/1800Z 35.8N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H  22/0600Z 38.5N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
96H  23/0600Z 47.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
CE0347D8-1907-470D-AC2F-F3C81057B188.png

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表