老農民版夜神月

向來較保守的EC決定報亦對此系統有了些微反應

老農民版夜神月

GFS仍持續看好此擾動的發展
而EC系集支持發展的成員則較前幾報來的少

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 155.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 153.7E, APPROXIMATELY 133
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE. THE SLOW CONSOLIDATION
IS ALSO EVIDENT ON RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CONDUCIVE, WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED
POSITION REVEALS SUPPORTIVE, ROBUST RADIAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT IS
CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD GUAM AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
4.7N 157.1E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI,
MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 172208Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS BROAD
TURNING COMPOSED OF 5-10 KT WINDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
STRENGTHEN, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.