簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-7-18 06:52
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本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-7-18 07:05 編輯
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 172300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2N 115.5E TO 21.1N 113.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 13 TO 18 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
172050Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N
115.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
115.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 115.4E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS BANDING WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 171805Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 171225Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (31-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INVEST 99W TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182300Z.//
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