ABPW10 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170200Z-170600ZJUL2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZJUL2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 16JUL21 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 527 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA
AB, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 162100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.8N 115.5E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD TURNING WITH
FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 161402Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS
15KT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WEAKER WINDS
ELSEWHERE, WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (31-32C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR THIS LOCATION FOR THE LAST TWO MODEL RUNS AND DEPICTS
INVEST 99W TRACKING SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1014 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS LOW.//
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