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JTWC06Z評級Medium
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.4N 144.9E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM NORTH OF GUAM. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM/DEPRESSION, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE
FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
VERY WEAK, DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES A SHARP TROUGH
WITH CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS (STRONG NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-30 KNOTS WITH BROAD DIVERGENCE) NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS,
INVEST 90W IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY. AFTER
TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD CENTRAL HONSHU, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS OVER A WARM POOL OF WATER (SST 28-29C) EAST OF
THE KANTO PLAIN. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO
LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. 
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