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95W JMA:TD 一度發布TCFA 無緣升格 轉化溫氣

查看數: 2822 評論數: 9 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2021-7-28 09:13

正文摘要:

  基本資料   編號               :95 W 擾動編號日期 :2021 年 07 月 28 日 09 時 撤編日期        :20 ...

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2021-8-1 11:10
JTWC評級降至Low abpwsair (13).jpg 95W_gefs_latest (1).png

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 36.7N 144.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 143.5E, APPROXIMATELY
120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 311949Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A BROAD LLC. A 312347Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD, WEAK CORE WITH
15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONSHU ARE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. INVEST 95W IS LOCATED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG
(40-50 KTS) SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONG (30-40 KTS), SST VALUES ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE AT 23C AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INTO HOKKAIDO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.

t02436 發表於 2021-7-31 22:20
取消TCFA,降評Medium
WTPN21 PGTW 311330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351Z JUL 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 301400)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. (WTPN21 PGTW 301400). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 145.1E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA
AB, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AND FULLY
EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 310919Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS AND A
310848Z SSMIS WIND PRODUCT INDICATED A VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD,
WITH UP TO 30 KNOT WINDS PRESENT JUST EAST OF THE LLCC, BUT WITH ONLY
10-15 KNOTS PRESENT IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD, OVER COOLER WATERS WITH SSTS NOW
BELOW 26 CELSIUS, AND INTO A REGION OF HIGH (30-40 KTS) VWS. NUMERICAL
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST TOWARDS HOKKAIDO. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HIGH VWS AND COOL
SSTS, THE SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
THOUGH WINDS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRESENT IN THE
EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

wp9521.gif
abpwsair.jpg
95W_311330sair.jpg
95W_gefs_latest.png
himawari8_ir_95W.gif
ben811018 發表於 2021-7-31 13:49
再次提醒,請勿出現情緒性、攻擊性之言論,違反者除依規則處分外,有關帳號都會長期禁言,敬請配合。

點評

為了公平起見,版主均是依照相關規則辦理,沒有刁不刁的問題。此外,也提醒您用詞上務必謹慎。  發表於 2021-7-31 14:09
沒辦法,從去年開始就被他刁,昨天擾動也是,初期原本就會多中心混戰,真是笑死  發表於 2021-7-31 13:57
t02436 發表於 2021-7-31 00:00
JTWC 14Z發布TCFA
wp9521.gif

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95W_gefs_latest.png
t02436 發表於 2021-7-30 21:10
因美軍於06Z調整95W之定位至28N142E一帶,與JMA 06Z對TD之定位接近,故兩帖即刻起合併繼續進行討論。
20210730 00Z 95W.INVEST.20kts.998mb.25.8N.134.5E
20210730 06Z 95W.INVEST.20kts.997mb.28.4N.142.4E
20210730 12Z 95W.INVEST.25kts.997mb.29N.143.6E
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 27N 143E NE 10 KT.

07300600WM.jpg
himawari8_95W_ir-rgb_202107301255.png
周子堯@FB 發表於 2021-7-30 12:54
雖與95W位置相近,惟渦度圖來看各自有渦度,且由95W風場掃描,卻有另一LLCC於25.8N.134.5E處;RSMC掃描亦有一中心於27.0N.140.0E處,故先判斷為兩各自擾動,若後續JTWC有做定位修正,再併帖~ 擷取.PNG
LATEST.jpg
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霧峰追風者 發表於 2021-7-30 12:22
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