蔡秉勳

結構比18w稍差但風場看起來也不差

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 052300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 128.9E TO 12.6N 125.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090518Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 128.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED 10.2N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
SOUTH EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD NOTCHED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION(LLC). A 051703Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 95W OVERALL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
GRADUAL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062300Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

EC,GFS最新系集

老農民版夜神月

JMA升格TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 139E WNW SLOWLY.

king111807

JTWC評級Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 140.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY
304 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE. INVEST 95W IS IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW
(<15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 94W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY,
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH INVEST 95W. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL
INTENSIFY BEYOND TAU 48 TO WARNING STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

GFS最新決定報及系集

甜心

老農民版夜神月 發表於 2021-9-4 08:11
GFS新報再度預報94W劍指台灣

會出現這樣的預報是因為最新的天氣數據資料顯示下週二開始臺灣東方海面上的老大太平洋高壓它又要開始增強大舉西伸，而它能增強到什麼程度將會間接引響的這個系統的後期動向跟偏西幅度。

老農民版夜神月

JTWC00Z調升其定強至20節,風場掃描亦有掃出其南側有局部較強風旗

94W INVEST 210904 0000 11.2N 141.9E WPAC 20 1007