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2118 圓規 季風低壓 外圍雨帶挾風雨狂襲北部及東部

簽到天數: 3169 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-10-7 14:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.5N 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THIS
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON
DEPRESSION WITH STRONG, CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS MULTIPLE VORTEXES ROTATING AROUND A CENTROID WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHEARING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, A
070401Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE REVEALS SOME FRAGMENTED, SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE
INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS INVEST 93W MERGES
WITH INVEST 94W. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK MOTION
AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg
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簽到天數: 3169 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-10-7 14:44 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.1N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 450NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. THIS SYSTEM
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION
WITH STRONG, CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED DISTURBANCE WITH BROAD TURNING AND MULTIPLE VORTEXES.
MSI ALSO INDICATES A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13.7N 129.0E,
HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LLC AT THIS TIME. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE
INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS INVEST 93W MERGES
WITH INVEST 94W. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK MOTION
AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg
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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2021-10-7 12:28 | 顯示全部樓層
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 14N 130E ALMOST STATIONARY.
20211007020901_0_Z__C_010000_20211007000000_MET_CHT_JCIspas_JCP600x581_JRcolor_T.png
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