(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.6S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 87.1E, APPROXIMATELY 870 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED. A 290028Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS WELL
AS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (30+ KT)
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT 93S WILL
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZOCT2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.6S
86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 842 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED,
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 281626Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B
PASS SHOWS A 30-35 KNOT WIND FIELD APPROXIMATELY 70-80 NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LLC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WIND FIELD IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MJO EVENT
TAKING PLACE OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ENHANCEMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (25+ KT)
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S
WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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