1. Showers and thunderstorms remain concentrated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. In addition, recent satellite wind
data indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better
defined and is producing winds of 30-35 mph. Environmental
conditions are marginally favorable for additional development and a
tropical depression is now likely to form by this weekend while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
WTPN21 PHNC 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 107.4W TO 14.2N 114.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110512Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 107.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 107.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 107.5W, APPROXIMATELY
674NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CENTRALIZED CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 12-24HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061430Z.
//
NNNN
1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by this weekend or early next
week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
