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95W

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2021-12-6 07:06 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-12-11 00:25 編輯

  基本資料  
編號               :95 W
擾動編號日期 :2021 12 06 06
撤編日期        :2021 12 00 00
95W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.7.5N.131E

20211205.2230.himawari-8.vis.95W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.7.5N.131E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2022擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-11 00:21 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC取消對95W的評級,改以新編的96W做主要系統,並同樣評級Low
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.6N 142.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.6N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 156
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK . ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WEAK BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W
WILL FOLLOW A WESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
sector_wpac.png himawari8_95W_band13_202112101155.png himawari8_95W_ir-rgb_202112101125.png himawari8_95W_dvorak_202112101145.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-10 00:57 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.6N
142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) FLARING CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM SST (30-31C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS HOWEVER, THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE TIME 95W WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH GFS
PRESENTING THE MOST AGRESSIVE FORECAST.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
95W_b13 (1).gif 95W_gefs_latest (4).png wpac (40).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-9 04:59 | 顯示全部樓層
數值看好迴旋後發展 ecmwf_uv850_vort_wpac_fh0-240 (1).gif wpac (39).png 95W_gefs_latest (3).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-6 15:47 | 顯示全部樓層
數值的反應暫時較微弱
wpac (10).png 95W_tracks_latest.png 95W_gefs_latest.png
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