老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：93 P
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 12 月 07 日 21 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 12 月 00 日 00 時
93P INVEST 211207 1200 7.5S 155.0E SHEM 15 0

老農民版夜神月

而JTWC18Z仍認定為TS?

SH, 03, 2021121518,   , BEST,   0, 306S, 1790E,  45,  989, TS,

老農民版夜神月

BMKG判定已轉溫

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布Final Warning

WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (RUBY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (RUBY) WARNING NR 013   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 24.3S 170.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 170.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 27.8S 174.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 171.5E.
14DEC21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (RUBY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z
IS 17 FEET.
//
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老農民版夜神月

巔峰已過,將逐漸轉化

老農民版夜神月

03P.Ruby雲圖

老農民版夜神月

FMS定強澳2上限60節,預測將稍微增強並達顛峰

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 131339 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RUBY CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 162.4E AT
131200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 19 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY 131800UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

TC RUBY CONTINUES ITS EAST SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER.
CONVECTION IS REDUCED IN RADIAL EXTENT WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AND STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE BUT LLCC IN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
SST AROUND 28 DEGRESS CELCIUS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED EAST
SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. DVORAK BASED ON EMBEDDED PATTERN WITH CENTRE EMBEDDED IN
MG AND NO BANDING FEATURE YIELDING DT 4.0. MET 4.0 & PT 4.0. FT BASED
ON DT THUS T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 20.9S 165.2E MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 22.6S 168.4E MOV ESE AT 16 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 24.9S 171.6E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 28.3S 175.0E MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON RUBY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
132000 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC判定稍早有略微減弱,目前由06Z的70KT略降為C1下限65KT

WDPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (RUBY) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.2S 162.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 275 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME MORE
FRAGMENTED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 130802Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED,
RAGGED LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING EXPOSED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS RECENT DETERIORATION IS LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 131024Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS 45-50 KNOT
WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, HOWEVER,
DATA T ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED STEADILY TO T3.0-3.5 (45-55 KNOTS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: 4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: 4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 69 KTS AT 132307Z
   CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 130840Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL
ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 12 WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR AND A DEEP, HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS STEERING
PATTERN IS CLASSIFIED AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND IS COMMON
EAST OF AUSTRALIA, AND GENERALLY PRODUCES FASTER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
TRACK SPEEDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE TRACK CONFIDENCE. TC 03P WILL RE-
INTENSIFY BY TAU 12 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS. BY TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND
TRACK OVER COOLER SST (25C). BY TAU 72, TC 03P WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (35-50 KNOTS) WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SST (22-
19C). THIS WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
LEAD TO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A
STORM-FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW AS IT APPROACHES NEW ZEALAND.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
TYPICALLY PRODUCES TIGHTLY-GROUPED FORECAST GUIDANCE AND,
CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACKS. THIS SYSTEM IS NO
EXCEPTION WITH A 70-80NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH 48.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 130000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) ALSO INDICATES A
TIGHT GROUPING OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A NARROW CONE OF HIGH STRIKE
PROBABILITY OVER AND JUST NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 50-70 KNOTS WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVELY PLACED CLOSER TO THE HWRF
WITH A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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