ben811018

JMA升格為熱帶低壓
核心逐漸鞏固，環流漸趨完整
CWB今天應該也會跟進
路徑上沒什麼懸念啦！

t02436

JMA 12Z升TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 15N 117E WNW SLOWLY.

JTWC提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.7N 117.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY
265 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE ASSESSED POSITION,
OBSCURING IT FROM CLEAR VIEW AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION,
CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE
OR SCATTEROMETER DATA MAKES EXACT POSITIONING DIFFICULT, BUT A
TIMELY 281200Z SHIP OBSERVATION REPORTED 20KT WINDS AND 1000 MB
PRESSURE JUST 45NM NORTHWEST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. THE
SAME SHIP, TRAVELING SOUTH TO NORTH, REPORTED SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT
280900Z AS IT PASSED WITHIN 35NM OF THE CENTER, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY;
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT AIMLESSLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST IT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NAVGEM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 97W WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP, THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SUGGEST A SLOW PACE OF CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION,
LIKELY REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 14Z評級Low

   (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8N
125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD EASTERLY WAVE WITH
WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION APPROACHING LUZON. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE, THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AS AN OPEN WAVE, 850MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN ENHANCED VORTICITY SIGNATURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LUZON AND AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
DEGRADATION IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION, BUT ONCE IT EMERGES INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, 97W IS ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-
72 HOURS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS, 30-31C SSTS, AND GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, AND ALL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES OVER LUZON AND ENTERS INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.