H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DESSINO
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 19.5N 92.3E TO 21.5N 88.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 93.4E IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 180359Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS WIND SPEEDS OF
UP TO 35KTS IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TEJ, A SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT INVEST 99B WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD KOLKATA AND MAKE
LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
組圖打開中，請稍候......