簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2013-1-23 15:23
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到了MEDIUM囉~
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 11P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 142.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 144.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND AN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN A 222312Z TRMM IMAGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 222341Z
SHOWS STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CAPE
YORK PENINSULA DESPITE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC, WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE POSITIONED OVER LAND, ONLY SHOWING 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SYSTEM GIVING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A TRACK
OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED STRUCTURE, UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. |
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