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11P.Oswald 對流在外陸上神奇裸奔中*

查看數: 12442 評論數: 28 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2013-1-17 11:36

正文摘要:

麻友飯 發表於 2013-1-25 13:44
從下圖可見
Oswald的頑強生命力
風力一直能維持在40kts左右
稍後若有機會出海 有良好底層結構 要再恢復一定強度難度不高
還有我真的很好奇 澳洲東部平原有什麼秘密使Oswald維持良好底層結構?:D

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風切低+目前大氣環境允許+一部分的對流在海上始終支撐。  發表於 2013-1-25 13:56
jwpk9899 發表於 2013-1-23 15:23
評級又升
到了MEDIUM囉~
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 11P) PREVIOUSLY  
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 142.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 144.6E,  
APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED  
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL  
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND AN  
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, WHICH IS  
EVIDENT IN A 222312Z TRMM IMAGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 222341Z  
SHOWS STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CAPE  
YORK PENINSULA DESPITE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC, WHICH CONTINUES  
TO BE POSITIONED OVER LAND, ONLY SHOWING 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR  
THE LLCC AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER  
THE SYSTEM GIVING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL  
WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A TRACK  
OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE  
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED  
TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED STRUCTURE, UPPER-LEVEL  
ENVIRONMENT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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