05S.Christine 深入內陸逐漸減弱中＊

krichard2011 · 2013-12-30 09:41

風眼是開了且開大眼...不過似乎有點破
就看在登陸之前還有沒有辦法鞏固起來

krichard2011 · 2013-12-30 08:11

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-12-30 08:11 編輯

高層眼看似正在清空當中
BOM的雷達已經可清楚看到颱風中心了

t02436 · 2013-12-30 00:37

澳式C3達陣!
明天深夜登陸

Details of the Severe Tropical Cyclone Christine at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.1 degrees South 119.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour and intensifying
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 968 hectoPascals

martin191919 · 2013-12-29 23:11

Details:

	Time (WST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm December 29	2	17.8S	119.4E	45
+6hr	2 am December 30	3	18.4S	119.1E	60
+12hr	8 am December 30	3	19.0S	118.7E	40
+18hr	2 pm December 30	3	19.6S	118.3E	65
+24hr	8 pm December 30	3	20.2S	118.0E	115
+36hr	8 am December 31	3	22.0S	117.5E	55
+48hr	8 pm December 31	1	24.4S	119.0E	135
+60hr	8 am January 1	tropical low	26.4S	121.6E	220
+72hr	8 pm January 1	tropical low	28.3S	125.3E	230

jwpk9899 · 2013-12-29 18:54

蜜露發表於 2013-12-28 23:49
我在百度問了專業風迷

在我們西太. 有命名才能算入國際編號.

那個是MFR不是MFS哦
然後其實南半球同一個機構不一定只有一個國家負責
像MFR除了法國留尼旺(31-55E)還有模里西斯(55-90E) 這兩個機構負責南印度洋
以經緯度來區分負責範圍不過都一樣是MFR

而BoM更複雜由澳洲、印尼(0-10S、90-125E)、巴布紐新幾內亞(0-10S、141-160E) 以3組名稱在做命名
至於澳洲部分似乎是10S以後 90-160E的水域(緯度部分我不確定優)
FMS則是由斐濟及紐西蘭負責這邊比較簡單主要由斐濟紐西蘭的緯度較高了比較用不到

martin191919 · 2013-12-29 15:08

快要升成BOM式cat.3

Details:

	Time (WST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm December 29	2	17.2S	119.7E	45
+6hr	8 pm December 29	2	17.7S	119.4E	70
+12hr	2 am December 30	3	18.2S	118.9E	90
+18hr	8 am December 30	3	18.7S	118.4E	115
+24hr	2 pm December 30	3	19.3S	118.0E	135
+36hr	2 am December 31	3	20.8S	117.4E	175
+48hr	2 pm December 31	2	23.3S	118.2E	210
+60hr	2 am January 1	1	26.1S	121.4E	245
+72hr	2 pm January 1	tropical low	28.7S	126.7E	280

martin191919 · 2013-12-29 10:11

JTWC：55KT
05S CHRISTINE 131229 0000  16.6S  120.2E SHEM 55 982

TPXS10 PGTW 290120 COR
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CHRISTINE)
B. 28/2332Z
C. 16.6S
D. 120.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.5 DT. MET YIELDS A 2.5 AND PT YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT. COR
LINE F.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/2022Z  16.4S  120.5E  SSMS
28/2123Z  16.4S  120.4E  SSMS

BERMEA

martin191919 · 2013-12-29 10:11

BOM升格Cat.2

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0114 UTC 29/12/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Christine
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 119.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 170 nm [315 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 50 nm [95 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  29/0600: 16.9S 119.6E:    035 [070]:  055  [100]:  979
+12:  29/1200: 17.5S 119.1E:    050 [090]:  060  [110]:  975
+18:  29/1800: 18.0S 118.8E:    060 [115]:  065  [120]:  967
+24:  30/0000: 18.6S 118.2E:    075 [135]:  070  [130]:  964
+36:  30/1200: 19.8S 117.4E:    095 [175]:  080  [150]:  954
+48:  31/0000: 21.8S 117.1E:    115 [210]:  060  [110]:  974
+60:  31/1200: 24.7S 119.0E:    130 [245]:  040  [075]:  989
+72:  01/0000: 27.3S 123.6E:    150 [280]:  030  [055]:  995
+96:  02/0000: 30.7S 138.1E:    195 [365]:  025  [045]:  998
+120: 03/0000: 28.9S 145.9E:    285 [525]:  025  [045]:  996
REMARKS:
System has continued to intensified over recent hours with improved curvature in
deep convection near the centre. Also microwave [2330UTC SSMIS] shows a
symmetrical low level circulation and provided a good indication of centre
location.

Dvorak analysis on IR gave curved band of 0.7 to 0.8 in past six hours with
FT/CI=3.5.