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martin191919|2013-12-27 16:53
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WTXS21 PGTW 270730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 122.3E TO 17.8S 118.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
270700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S
120.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
123.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 120.9E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING
OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270542Z NOAA-19
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 270044Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE CENTER. A RECENT OBSERVATION REPORT FROM BROWSE ISLAND
INDICATES A PRESSURE FALL OF 4 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 1001 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A WARM
SEA SURFACE, WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ALSO
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280730Z.//
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