martin191919

WONIUJUZHANG 201312270500UTC

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98S)

B.  26/2332Z

C.  13.3S

D.  120.9E

E.  FIVE/MTSAT

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...35 WRAP A DT OF 2.0.BUT CLOUD IN IR IS
TOO MESS SO DT-0.5 A DT OF 1.5.MET S 1.5.PT AGREE.DBO DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...SCHWARTZ

麻友飯

4天後澳北的Karratha可能遭受一枚叫Christine的Cat4颶風吹襲。。。願主祝福當地。。。:funk:

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 123.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 123.0E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A PARTIAL 261338Z ASCAT PASS. THE LLCC LIES NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS. A WARM SEA SURFACE, WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ALSO FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MULTIPLE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IN ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT IN THE TWO TO THREE DAY TIMEFRAME, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jwpk9899

krichard2011 發表於 2013-12-26 15:57
BOM已編號04U
不過納悶的是 上一次的95S 不就04U了嗎
怎麼這隻也是04U?

95S是04U
而現在的98S也同樣是04U
這在BOM的報文當中有提到哦
REMARKS:
The system previously located in the Joseph Bonaparte has developed a new
circulation well to the north of Broome. From a policy perspective the same
system number has been maintained, however the low level centre appears to be
developing under new, much broader, mid level circulation. (而低層中心似乎是新的)

t02436

評級Low~~這隻好像是EC的大餅?


AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8S 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252226Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO DISRUPTION BY TIMOR ISLAND. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AND SLP NEAR 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD, AWAY FROM TIMOR ISLAND, IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011

BOM已編號04U
不過納悶的是 上一次的95S 不就04U了嗎
怎麼這隻也是04U?
預測會來上看2級

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0658 UTC 26/12/2013
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.8S
Longitude: 122.4E
Location Accuracy: within 90 nm [165 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [222 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  26/1200: 13.2S 122.1E:     090 [165]:  020  [035]: 1002
+12:  26/1800: 13.6S 121.8E:     090 [165]:  025  [045]: 1001
+18:  27/0000: 13.9S 121.4E:     090 [165]:  025  [045]: 1001
+24:  27/0600: 14.2S 121.1E:     095 [175]:  030  [055]:  998
+36:  27/1800: 14.7S 120.5E:     110 [205]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  28/0600: 15.3S 119.9E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  989
+60:  28/1800: 15.9S 119.3E:     130 [240]:  045  [085]:  986
+72:  29/0600: 16.7S 118.4E:     140 [260]:  055  [100]:  979
+96:  30/0600: 18.5S 116.2E:     170 [315]:  075  [140]:  959
+120: 31/0600: 21.8S 115.3E:     210 [390]:  090  [165]:  947