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08S.Colin 進入高緯 轉化為溫帶氣旋*

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    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2014-1-6 13:08

正文摘要:

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 12:12 編輯   強烈熱帶氣旋      編號:06R(08S)    名稱:Colin   基本資料          ...

蜜露 發表於 2015-12-17 14:37


看在BoM給出930hPa 放的巔峰

一直覺得Colin核心很小. 維持時間偏短
記得JTWC年鑑好像從115kts升格至120kts










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新細明體 發表於 2014-1-12 02:57
WTIO30 FMEE 111838

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20132014

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (COLIN)



2.A POSITION 2014/01/11 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 79.2 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL

TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :13 KM
Colin繼續增強,MFR最新一報升格ITC,給95KT

Meow 發表於 2014-1-11 21:01
大爆發,JTWC 給 90 節,MFR 更直接給到 85 節了。

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 111212
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20132014
  5. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (COLIN)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2014/01/11 AT 1200 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 79.7 E
  8. (SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL
  9. SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 170
  17. 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 90
  18. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
  19. 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
  20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
  21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
  22. 1.B FORECASTS:
  23. 12H: 2014/01/12 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
  24. CYCLONE
  25. 24H: 2014/01/12 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
  26. CYCLONE
  27. 36H: 2014/01/13 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
  28. CYCLONE
  29. 48H: 2014/01/13 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
  30. CYCLONE
  31. 60H: 2014/01/14 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
  32. TROPICAL STORM
  33. 72H: 2014/01/14 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
  34. TROPICAL STORM
  35. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  36. 96H: 2014/01/15 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
  37. EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
  38. 120H: 2014/01/16 12 UTC: 40.3 S / 91.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
  39. EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
  40. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
  41. T=CI=5.5-
  42. THIS SYSTEM OF SMALL SIZE, HAS GONE THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
  43. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. AN EYE ALSO OF SMALL SIZE VISIBLE SINCE
  44. 06UTC HAS QUICKLY  WARMED UP. INTENSITY AT 00UTC, AND 06UTC HAS BEEN
  45. REVIEWED RESPECTIVELY AT 3.5 AND 4.0.  DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM,
  46. THE CONTRAINTS RULES OF 1.0 IN 6 HOURS HAS BEEN BROKEN.
  47. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH-WESTWARD, ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF
  48. THE MID-TROPOSHERIC HIGH PRESSURES. DURING THE NEXT DAYS, IT IS
  49. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS REGULAR TRACK. FROM TUESDAY 14, THE
  50. TRACK SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD TOWARDS A POLAR
  51. TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
  52. FOR THIS FORECAST TRACK. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODEL SHOWS A VERY GOOD
  53. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TRACK.
  54. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE WIND-SHEAR CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO
  55. REMAIN WEAK  WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL
  56. SHOULD ALWAYS BENEFIT TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT HOURS, AS THE SST
  57. BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO BECOME MARGINAL TOMORROW.
  58. THUS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY UNTIL SUNDAY.FROM
  59. MONDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE WITH COLDER SST AND THE
  60. STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
  61. WEAKEN AND THEN UNDERGO A EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION TUESDAY AND
  62. WEDNESDAY.=
複製代碼

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點評

這隻起初還不算看好. 目前大爆發. 然到南半球也要挑戰去年西太....?  發表於 2014-1-11 22:03
在大家焦點都被Ian和91W拖去的時候 他就悄悄地增強了~  發表於 2014-1-11 21:25
甜心 發表於 2014-1-11 19:20
stavies 發表於 2014-1-11 14:16
本帖最後由 stavies 於 2014-1-11 14:16 編輯

高層風眼正在打開 可能會迅速增強

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