老J直接評為medium
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.0S 35.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM A SYSTEM TRACKING OFF OF AFRICA AND INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
ENTERING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS MARGINAL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.