THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
131.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DARWIN CONTINUES TO INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF 997 MB WITH 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF UP
TO 7 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER,
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER LAND; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODELS
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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