t02436

先補幾張圖(From對岸論壇)
首報路徑(BoM已撤編)


命名實測風力



目前JTWC降評Low
對流鬆散還要等看看了

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0S
152.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 150.3E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON THE EQUATORWARD EDGE
OF A SHEAR LINE. A 020357Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES WEAK
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH WEAK
SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE AND AN OVERALL WEAK STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND IS UNDER SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLCC TRACKS EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW

新細明體

BOM已經把Edna降格為Tropical Low

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1253 UTC 01/02/2014
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.9S
Longitude: 152.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [264 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa

雖然這貨有實測撐腰，但老J認為今早的風速實測受到雷暴因素干擾，所以並沒有作出升格。

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 20.2S 152.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARION REEF, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED
ON THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A SHEAR LINE. MSI INDICATED A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL ORGANIZATION FROM 31/2130 TO 2330Z;
HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECAYED AND THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION IS MARGINAL. A 010408Z NOAA-19 IMAGE CURRENTLY
INDICATES WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MARION
REEF PEAKED AT 44 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH AN SLP OF 997 MB (31/1730 TO
1900Z) BUT THESE SHORT-LIVED, GALE-FORCE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORM, WHICH WAS POSITIONED OVER
THE REEF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, AND WEAK BAROCLINICITY RELATED TO THE SHEAR LINE
INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
BASED ON THE DYNAMIC MODELS, WHICH INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.