這隻已經轉化為溫帶氣旋對流也幾乎消散殆盡
未來隨著緯度的上升
即將消失 JTWC於剛剛發出FW
死期應該不遠了

13Z離開FMS責任區
之後交由TCWC 威靈頓發布(話說紐西蘭氣象局的縮寫是什麼-.-?)

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 011.

PRIMARY RESPONSIBILTY FOR FUTURE WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA
WILL REST WITH WELLINGTON

TCWC首報

TC Edna 985hPa near 22S 164E, moving southeast 15kt, expected at 25S 165E by 060000UTC. Within 180 nautical miles of TC Edna in southwest quadrant: Clockwise 25kt, easing after 060600UTC.

TXPS21 KNES 051210
TCSWSP

A.  12P (EDNA)

B.  05/1132Z

C.  24.4S

D.  165.8E

E.  FIVE/MTSAT

F.  EXTRATROPICAL

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H.  REMARKS...0628Z AMSU INDICATED THE STORM WAS TRANSITIONING AT THAT
POINT OUT OF BEING WARM CORE.  THIS COUPLED WITH RAPID MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST GAVE CREDENCE TO THE STORM BEING EXTRATROPICAL AT THIS POINT.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    05/0645Z 22.4S 164.6E SSMIS

...LIDDICK

NOAA最新的分析
缺乏暖心已經轉化= =
老J12Z降40Kts

稍早似乎一度有要建立底層風眼的樣子
不過從雲圖來看 結構似乎不怎麼樣
老J預測一路TS到底

呃...就連FMS本身也不看好 = =
預測明天下午那報就會減弱成TD
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1
SOUTH 161.5 EAST AT 041200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.

REPEAT POSITION 17.1S 161.5E at 041200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
30 KNOTS BY 050600 UTC.

老J對未來的預測 完全看衰
巔峰只上看40kts = =
不知道是不是考慮到西南邊的大片乾區

對流明顯爆發似乎是在建立CDO的樣子
環境方面目前應該處於安全地帶
垂直風切相當弱 北側水氣供應該不成問題
個人滿看好這隻發展的...
此外這個系統 FMS 編號12F




TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0757 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA 12F CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
160.1E AT 040600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.