19P.Hadi 風切阻撓發展受限NRL暫撤

新細明體 · 2014-3-9 20:55

事實上這貨根本一直有35KT水平，地面實測和ASCAT也支持。德法一向歧視此類系統
搬到西太的話一早就命名了。11TALAS剛升格時也是一副爛樣子

BOM一向比較注重中心附近的持續風速，而且烈風只集中於中心南側，所以暫時不打算升格
JMA則沒有那麼嚴格，一般ASCAT掃出多少，MXWD就給多少，不過會注明最大風速不在中心附近

甜心 · 2014-3-9 18:02

從今天的彩色雲圖上看今天的96p，過去一天它整個幾乎縮成一團像圓球一樣不過螺旋未減稍早時中心一度要裸露不過應該補起來了...東北澳近陸風切真可怕。

KINGRIC · 2014-3-9 17:13

高低分離相當嚴重
短時間內要發展起來可能有些困難
不過BOM仍預測下一報仍有機會升格
未來它的行進路徑不確定性相當高
似乎有要折返回低緯的打算...

t02436 · 2014-3-9 13:25

降評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7S
149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 226 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EVEN
AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
AND THE LLCC BECOMING ILL-DEFINED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
REMAINS MEDIUM.

KINGRIC · 2014-3-9 11:11

JTWC因對流已經被風切切離
且LLCC中心難以定位
老J已於剛剛取消了TCFA

THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW080200). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 149.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 226 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EVEN AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE LLCC BECOMING ILL-DEFINED, THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KINGRIC · 2014-3-8 22:03

BOM 這一報又再度不再上望澳式C2了
對流在最近這幾個小時要爆發起來的跡象
不過可惜主要對流似乎仍沒有完全覆蓋在中心附近

新細明體 · 2014-3-8 21:35

ASCAT掃出35KT

Flinders Reef實測36KT

The tropical low has barely developed over the past few days, and retains the
structure of an asymmetric, broad monsoon depression. Latest Ascat pass at 1109
UTC depicted this structure, and showed an annulus of gales between 100 and 200
nm from the centre to the south of the system, with winds below gale elsewhere.

BOM認為系統仍帶有季風低壓性質，因此不作出升格