甜心

今天雲圖看起來96p依然小小一隻不過螺旋程度卻相當的深，依目前狀況看來這知過去一天威力強度應該有增加不少。

甜心

t02436 發表於 2014-3-7 11:37
JTWC發布TCFA!

嗯...這隻小傢伙過去不斷增強跟吸收水氣彩色雲圖上已經看的出風暴的態勢了，不知道未來路徑預測這段時間有沒有改變過不然北澳跟東北澳恐怕要面臨雙旋侵襲了。

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
153.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 150.6E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
062353Z METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE BROAD LLCC. A 062353Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER BUT PROVIDES EVIDENCE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS
ISLAND INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOT SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

BoM編號13U預計會在東澳近海升格命名

Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0212 UTC 07/03/2014
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.9S
Longitude: 150.6E
Location Accuracy: within 70 nm [130 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [254 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [34 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa

Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa

Radius of outermost closed isobar: 45 nm [85 km]

FORECAST DATADate/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa

+06:  07/0600: 14.9S 149.3E:     080 [150]:  025  [045]: 1002

+12:  07/1200: 15.0S 148.6E:     095 [175]:  030  [055]:  999

+18:  07/1800: 15.4S 148.0E:     105 [200]:  030  [055]:  999

+24:  08/0000: 15.9S 147.7E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  999

+36:  08/1200: 17.1S 147.4E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]:  999

+48:  09/0000: 18.4S 147.1E:     160 [295]:  035  [065]:  996

+60:  09/1200: 19.3S 147.6E:     180 [330]:  045  [085]:  988

+72:  10/0000: 19.9S 148.2E:     195 [365]:  045  [085]:  988

+96:  11/0000: 20.7S 148.3E:     240 [445]:  030  [055]:  998

t02436

升評Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
154.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 153.1E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, YET REMAINED BROAD AND
ELONGATED AS EVIDENT IN RECENT ASCAT DATA. A 061013Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED INTO
THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20
TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE
AREA FAVOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING GFS,
ECMWF, AND NAVGEM, ARE AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

因為目前看來96P最早編號發展較其餘兩者好，所以統一發在這帖

凌晨的風場
LLCC明顯

對流爆發螺旋引現


澳洲地區水氣分布


=========================================
GFS數值串接成GIF檔就可以看好戲了~

98P將在卡灣發展成小鋼砲
96P近三天就可望命名
之後98P與96P將在東澳互旋

99P(編號與否待定)將南移侵襲紐國北島
90P成形後將與98P(96P)再度互旋西侵東澳

反觀南印則是平靜毫無反應~
數值僅供參考~加減看囉XD

甜心

今天看起來96p結構問題有改善且已有明顯螺旋性建立應該不用多久就會升格TD了，未來預測路線大至認為後期很可能撲東北澳。

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S 152.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH BROKEN AND FLARING CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. A 042340Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE AREA IS HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED AND NO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGHLY
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING
GFS, ECMWF, AND NAVGEM, ARE AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE OVERALL CURRENT POOR STRUCTURE BUT
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW