甜心

99p在最新雲圖上看起來好像在這一大片的低壓帶中活躍，不過這個在南半球算中緯擾動了吧那邊是以南回歸線為主。

t02436

06Z
JTWC立馬評級Low~~

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0S 171.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 070258Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING AROUND
THE CENTER. A 062256Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND
BARBS ALONG THE EASTER SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD FIJI. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

早上FMS編號17F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F [1009HPA] ANALYSED
NEAR 17.0S 168.0E AT
062100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS NOT INCREASED OR DEEPENED MUCH. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS KEEPS IT SLOW MOVING OVER THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

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