21S.Hellen 海峽有紀錄以來最強氣旋

t02436 · 2014-3-26 00:00

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 00:01 編輯

特強熱帶氣旋
編號：14 R (21 S)
名稱：Hellen

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 03 月 25 日 23 時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 03 月 29 日 09 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 04 月 05 日 17 時
　登陸地點　　：馬達加斯加馬哈贊加省蘇阿拉拉

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)    ：135  kts  (  CAT 4  )
留尼旺氣象部 (MFR)：125  kts  ( VITC )
海平面最低氣壓　：925 百帕

  過去路徑圖
暫無
  討論帖圖片
95S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-11.3S-39.4E

以上資料來自 : JTWC、MFR、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2014-4-4 14:24

即將再度登陸莫三比克
猛爆增強快速減弱
JTWC也取消評級

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.9E
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KINGRIC · 2014-4-3 17:32

對流雖然仍不斷冒出來不過強乾空氣包圍
環境來看的話目前是抑制的
未來重新發展的機會應該是不高

t02436 · 2014-4-3 06:40

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4S 86.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 830 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF TURNING.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
THE POSITION OF THIS INVEST WAS REPOSITIONED FURTHER EAST IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE LAST ABIO UPDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.