簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2014-3-30 09:44
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MFR 升 80kts
WTIO30 FMEE 300053
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/14/20132014
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (HELLEN)
2.A POSITION 2014/03/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 44.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/03/30 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2014/03/31 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2014/03/31 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 44.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/04/01 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2014/04/01 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2014/04/02 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/03 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
120H: 2014/04/04 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0
HELLEN KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY AND SHOWS A PINHOLE EYE IN IRIMAGERY SINCE 21Z.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED
NORTHWARD, HELLEN WILL KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALONG-TRACK ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM IS LYING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS WEAK (5M/S ACCORDING TO CIMSS AT 1800Z) AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS GOOD MAINLY POLEWARD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A WESTERLY
SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTING SOUTH OF 18S.
SST ARE VERY HIGH OVER THIS AREA (29/30 DEGREES CELCIUS).
SUNDAY LATE, THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. HELLEN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CLEARLY.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, HELLEN SHOULD RE-CURVE WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REBUILDING SOUTHWARD.
HELLEN SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING ON THIS WEST-SOUTH-WEST PATH UP TO ITS
LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINES
IN THE AREA OF QUELIMANE.
ON THIS EXPECTED PATH, THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR STRENGTHENING
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CLEARLY THIS SMALL SYSTEM .
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AGAIN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN ACCORDING TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS SENSIBILITY TO THE VARIATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.
IT IS NOT TOTALLY EXCLUDED THAT SYSTEM GET MORE CLOSER TO MADAGASCAR
THAN THE MENTIONNED FORECAST.
SOME AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SUGGEST A TRACK CLOSE TO MAHAJONGA OR
BESALAMPY COASTLINES.
GIVEN THE VICINITY OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE, THE
INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE INHABITANTS OF THE NORTH-WESTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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